Oracle Earnings Preview: Can AI Momentum Push the Stock Beyond Its 50% Rally?
Ali Merchant | Jun 11, 2025 10:16AM ET
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)'s stock has experienced a significant rally of over 50% since its low point in April 2025, reflecting a recovery phase. Despite early concerns related to increased AI investment and general economic uncertainties. A favorable trade deal with China and strong earnings reports from other technology companies, which suggest the sector is stabilizing and growing. The back-to-back earnings disappointments previously weighed on the stock, but the current optimism indicates a possible turnaround driven by improved factors in both the macroeconomic environment and Oracle's operational performance.
Key highlights
- Oracle's strategic emphasis on AI infrastructure and services positions it well to benefit from the expanding demand for AI technologies. Engagement in significant projects like Stargate highlights the company's commitment to advancing AI capabilities and innovation.
- The company’s integrated AI offerings, alongside its robust database and enterprise software portfolio, provide a comprehensive and seamless solution for organizations looking to deploy AI at scale.
- ORCL offerings like the autonomous database and industry-specific cloud applications set it apart from competitors by delivering tailored, innovative solutions that address specific customer needs.
- While Oracle has robust growth drivers, skepticism persists regarding its ability to deliver the substantial increases needed in the fourth quarter to meet full-year targets for double-digit revenue growth and over 50% year-over-year growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). Source: InvestingPro
ORCL Q4 2024 earnings after market Wednesday June 11, 2025
Technical Analysis Perspective
- ORCL has staged a strong rally from 118.86 April 2025 low.
- Recouping more than 70% of it’s losses from Dec ’24 high at 198.31 to April ’25 low at 118.86.
- Stock is forming a rounding formation exactly like it did from August ’22 to February ’23 (Rounding formation A).
- The current rounding formation (Rounding formation B) started from February ’25 which is still in progress.
- If history repeats, then consolidation post earnings followed by additional rally.
- Stock has penetrated a falling trendline from December ’24 high now at 171/170.
- A rally to 182 with more room to 191 is likely, provided 171/170 remains intact on dips post earnings.
Weekly Candlestick Chart
ORCL Seasonality Chart
ORCL closes 2.3% higher in June, 55% of the time since 2009.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI), Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
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