Oil Traders Follow Market’s Message
Eric De Groot | May 29, 2015 10:55AM ET
The fact that 'everyone' is fleeing oil's biggest fund is bullish for oil. Those that disagree should be asking themselves how many of today's sellers, largely followers of price and joiners of the majority, were buying extreme complacency in 2013 and 2014? The capitulation index (CAP), defined by leverage and sentiment, says a lot (chart)! As always, Insight readers focus on the message of the market rather than the actions of majority with a poor track record of market timing.
As they say in America, 'cut the crap'. Today's sellers must recognize the following: (1) they're neutral market (yellow box) within fear to complacency oscillation (cycle), and (2) mark down has been interrupted by cause (building). Cause can be resolved by continuation (of mark down) or reversal to mark up. The probability of continuation grows as CAP trends toward complacency.
Headline: Everyone Is Fleeing Oil's Biggest Fund
The biggest U.S. exchange-traded fund that tracks oil is heading for the largest two-month outflow in six years, raising concern that crude’s 30 percent rally may stall.
Holders of the United States Oil Fund, known as (NYSE:USO), have withdrawn almost $1 billion so far in April and May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Crude dropped about $12 a barrel after a $1.4 billion exodus from the fund in the two months ended June 2009.
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