Oil Experiences Brief Moment of Insanity; Support Holds Firm for S&P 500
Tim Knight | Jul 17, 2023 08:55AM ET
Good morning, everyone,and welcome to a new week. One tidbit of market motion was found – briefly! – with crude oil, thanks to some fresh bridge-blowing-up action in Crimea. Normally a chart like this could be attributed to a bad data spike, but this is honestly what oil did over the span of a few minutes. I’ve got to imagine there were some positions that got screwed up during that brief insanity.
Closer to home, the S&P 500 Futures are traipsing ever-so-gently on its Fibonacci. As I’m typing this, a little past 5 in the morning, the /ES is perfectly hugging its 4528.71 level, which it’s been trying to slip through all night but hasn’t yet managed to achieve. I’m obviously hoping it succeeds and soon.
A weekly chart below, as opposed to the minute bar chart above, provides better insight as to what these lines are all about. To me, the only meaningful chance the bears have this summer is a push about 300 points below here, after which time the market would stabilize and make a fresh run at new highs.
Normally, with just nine positions, I’d describe myself as “exceptionally light”, but I am, in fact, 100% committed in my portfolio. It’s only “light” with a paucity of positions since I’ve taken so much cash away from my account during these dark times! At present, 8 of those 9 are safely profitable, and the one exception, PRU, is close. Here’s hoping for a good Monday.
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