NZD/USD Direction Will Be Determined by U.S. CPI
Jason Sen | Mar 14, 2023 05:33AM ET
AUD/USD soared as the US dollar collapsed, with the Fed printing more money to bail out depositors. The break above 6650/60 hit strong resistance at 6700/20. A high for the day exactly here. Shorts need stops above 6735.
Our shorts are about 50 pips in profit. We are in a bear trend so it is tempting to run at least some of the position (although taking half the profit in these crazy volatile conditions is probably a good idea, especially with US CPI released today). A break below 6640 can target 6620, perhaps as far as the recent low at 6575/65.
NZD/USD initially held resistance at 6180/6200 for about 10 hours, but there was little profit on shorts. The break higher did see 6200/6180 act as support for a buy signal targeting 6240/50 & almost as far as the March high at 6270/75. I think the bear trend will resume eventually but today's direction will likely be determined by CPI.
Strong support at 6195/85. Longs need stops below 6170. Longs can target minor resistance at 6250/60. A break above 6275 can target 6310/20.
CAD/JPY: Unfortunately, yesterday's high was 14 pips below my sell level at 9820/40 before the pair hit my targets of 9720, 9660/50 & 9620/10. Well done if you ran shorts after the sell signal on Friday, with up to 200 pips profit on the table.
We have a 2-year trend line & 100-week plus 500-day moving average support at 9615/9595 as we become oversold on the daily chart. Longs need stops below 9560. A break lower is an important sell signal targeting 9480/60 for profit-taking.
Longs at 9615/9595 can target 9700/10. A break above 9725 can target 9780/9800 today.
AUD/JPY - just be aware that the pair are also testing a 15-year trend line & 100-week plus 500-day moving average support at 8790/80 as we become oversold on the daily chart. Longs need stops below 8740.
USD/JPY collapsed through my buying opportunity at 135.60/40 for a sell signal targeting 134.80 & 134.20. The break below 133.80 was a sell signal targeting 133.10/00 & we fell as far as 132.27.
We are oversold short term & of course, today's move is going to be the reaction to the US CPI report. I would suggest we have strong support at 133.00/132.80. Longs need stops below 132.60. A break below 132.20 is a sell signal targeting 131.85, probably 131.25.
First resistance at 133.60/80. Shorts need stops above 134.10. A break higher target of 134.80, perhaps as far as 135.10/20.
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EUR/JPY shorts at strong resistance at 144.00/20 needed stops above 144.35. The high was 144.38. I hope you managed to hold the short for the collapse to my targets of 143.20/10 & strong support at 142.70/50 for up to 150 pips profit. Longs here were stopped below 142.30.
NZD/JPY I wrote that we had the best support at 8250/30 this week. Longs needed stops below 8215. We spiked down to 8195 before a jump to 8320 so my levels were not accurate enough. I am going to take a level from the weekly chart. 23.6% Fibonacci support at 8185/80 & the 100-week plus 500-day moving average at 8140/35.
This is an important support area if we see further losses this week. A break below 8100, therefore, is a sell signal.
Minor resistance at 8310/30. A break higher can target 8360 & strong resistance at 8390/8400. Shorts need stops above 8420.
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