NZD/USD: The Kiwi Keels Over
Matt Simpson | Aug 20, 2014 02:05AM ET
The key level of support have been breached against the Greenback to suggest the bearish move may be part of a larger structure, in what has been a relatively action-packed Asia session.
I have been keeping a close eye on the 84c swing low and had expected this level to hold for the foreseeable future. Needless to say during a volatile Asia session the level finally broke and provides a couple of key levels to consider for short positions.
At time of writing and due to the velocity of the decline I expect 0.360 supports (MS1) to be tested. Whilst this may only leave room for a few extra pips on the bear side there is a good chance this level will hold into Europe / London open as we witness profit taking and long initiated by the brave. I have highlighted the broken trendline and these do have a tendency to get retested once broken. However the trendline is not exactly precise so we need to allow lots of room for noise around it, assuming we do see a sizeable retracement towards it.
Due to the bearishness of the decline I suspect we won’t be seeing this retracement any time soon. A more likely level of resistance to consider for selling into may be 0.84-43 for intraday traders.
- Once / If we break below MS1 then next obvious target becomes 0.824 where we see MS2 and historical S/R.
- Only a break back above 0.853 swing high brings into question the likelihood of a bearish move down to 0.824.
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