Not Sure About Gold? Let The Fed Funds Cycle Be Your Guide

 | Jun 16, 2014 03:56PM ET

We recently welcomed Doug Peta, an economist from BCA research, to our offices. He presented some interesting research regarding the Fed Funds Rate Cycle, and in turn, what that research could mean for Gold. I wanted to share points from his presentation, as well as our own in-house research, to help you understand the positivity we see for the precious metal looking towards 2015. h2 Where are we now?/h2

Below is a chart from BCA showing the Fed Funds Rate Cycle. In essence, this chart neatly illustrates what the interest rate cycle imposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve looks like. The red circle indicates where we are right now: Phase IV, also known as the “easing” phase of the monetary policy that was enacted in 2008 in the U.S., better known as quantitative easing (QE).

according to the World Bank's latest projections.

Similarly, the money supply of the United States has been a steady grower and the money supply in the E7 countries is also expected to reverse course; right now it is growing again but at a slower rate. The U.S. data suggests that a new easing cycle is starting in Europe, Japan and emerging markets.  A pickup in economic activity in the E7, especially the big gold consumers, is yet another positive sign for the yellow metal.

Real interest rates are headed lower for most of the world as well. As money supply grows, countries eventually feel inflationary pressures. This will hold true in the U.S. as we move into 2015 and back into Phase I. All of these changes can lead to a declining confidence in paper money, yet another good sign for gold.

And an interesting side note
I have noticed that recent articles in both Money Magazine and the New York Times use an array of gold images to illustrate wealth. It seems that while some may debate whether gold is money, gold remains an enduring symbol of wealth.