June Business Cycle Index: No Recession
iMarket Signals | Jun 30, 2016 09:25AM ET
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
The BCI at 205.8 is below last week’s 206.1, the BCI is now below the previous peak of this Business Cycle indicated by the BCIp at 91.5. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 15.3 is down from last week’s 15.6. No recession is signaled.
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.
The BCI uses the below listed economic data, and combining the components for the index in “real time”, i.e. the data is only incorporated into the index at its publication date.
- 10-year treasury yield (daily)
- 3-month treasury bill yield (daily)
- S&P 500 (daily)
- Continues Claims Seasonally Adjusted (weekly)
- All Employees: Total Private Industries (monthly)
- New houses for sale (monthly)
- New houses sold (monthly)
The 6-month smoothed annualized growth rate of series is a well-established method to extract an indicator from the series. We use this method to obtain BCIg, i.e. the calculated growth rate with 6.0 added to it, which generates, on past performance, an average 11 week leading recession signal when BCIg falls below zero. Further, the index BCI retreats from its cyclic peak prior to a recession in a well-defined manner allowing the extraction of the alternate indicator BCIp (and its variant BCIw) from which, on average, 20 week leading recession signal is generated when BCIp falls below 25. The historic values can be downloaded from iMarketSignals as an MS excel sheet.
Figure 2 plots the history of BCI, BCIg, and the LOG (S&P 500) since July 1967, and Figure 3 plots the history of BCIp, i.e 46 years of history, which includes seven recessions, each of which the BCIg and BCIp managed to indicate timely, the weeks lead to a recessions are indicated on the plots.
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