Natural Gas: Could Ukraine Tension Restart Storage Phobia This Year?
Satendra Singh | Feb 22, 2022 12:49PM ET
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina forced several refinery operators in the Gulf Coast, where about 40 percent of the nation's refining capacity is located, to shut down. Pressuring gas supplies, even more, were power outages that shut down two major pipelines that pump gas to key terminals and distribution centers along the Eastern U.S. that resulted in a bumpy move by the Natural Gas Futures to hit $14.575 and continued to sustain above $12.183 till December 2005.
In 2008, natural gas witnessed one more spike in the summer up to $13.492 and then a quick drop in prices in the winter. With the weather being a factor that defines price-action. Natural gas follows the pattern of oil prices spiking in the summer and falling in the winter. The reason that caused this second-lifetime peak was a sudden surge in natural gas storage with relatively normal demand.
In 2022, the same storage phobia seems to be on the way since the eruption of fear of supply disruption if the current situation on Ukraine issue is not resolved soon. I find that Europe could push this storage phobia could restart once again to meet any supply disruption, caused by any geopolitical reason or by any weather-generated demand.
On February 21, 2022, Reuters reported that The European Union will consider whether to require member states to fill their natural gas storage to prescribed levels, a senior official said as the bloc seeks energy security amid fears of a conflict in Ukraine involving major supplier Russia. I felt the current geopolitical concern between the US and Russia looks has already rooted this fear factor.
Secondly, all over the world, tight supply and surging demand to fuel economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic forced European gas prices to record highs last year, prompting Brussels to start working on protecting its energy system from supply shocks or price spikes.
I find that the current strength of the natural gas prices amid noises over warm winters looks evident enough that the storage war could once again be the reason behind the current spike in the Natural Gas Futures. Undoubtedly if we have a look at the monthly chart of the Natural Gas Futures, I find that the current position of the prices is still above the 200 DMA which is currently at $4.382 which ensures the growing strength of the demand.
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No matter this demand is weather generated or a storage phobia, it overlooks the supply-side of the natural gas. I feel that the Natural Gas Futures could test one more peak near 2008 levels before September 2022 as the draft, seen by Reuters, contained a proposal to oblige member states to ensure minimum storage by Sept. 30 every year. The proposal could change before it is published.
Speaking three days after a draft document showed Brussels may impose minimum gas storage requirements, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson referred to laws already in place in some countries to bolster stocks ahead of each winter.
"Right now this is national legislation. We have to analyze if this kind of legislation at the EU level is necessary,"
Simson told a news conference in Madrid on Monday.
No matter what I believe. But the growing strength of natural gas price-action indicates a new peak in 2022 if storage phobia starts hovering in other continents of the world as every nation could start running for increasing storage to propel its economic growth after a long pandemic-generated economic slowdown.
Natural Gas Futures are currently swinging amid the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries. The Russian parliament approved treaties with two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, opening the way for an immediate Russian troop deployment despite the threat of Western sanctions, including the blocking of a major new pipeline.
Despite the written remarks by the Russian President Mr. Putin for a gas summit in Qatar on Tuesday over Russia's aims to continue uninterrupted supplies, including liquefied natural gas, to the world markets, improve related infrastructure and increase investments in the gas sector; Germany put on ice the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in response to Russia's move in eastern Ukraine.
I find that all these moves by the western countries will continue to impact the natural gas prices for a long time, and this situation could encourage storage phobia around the world in the future. Undoubtedly, the current geopolitical situation looks evident enough to increase volatility in natural gas prices, but shortly the price trend could find a steep upward move. For a more in-depth analysis of the expected outlook of the Natural Gas price action, readers may subscribe to my YouTube channel SS Analysis.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.
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