Natural Gas: Changing Scenario From Heating To Cooling Demand
Satendra Singh | May 03, 2018 09:54AM ET
Since submission of my last analysis, on analysis of the movement of Natural Gas futures on May 3rd, 2018 at 09:40:00 , while we are just at the distance of 20 minutes from the announcement of impending inventory of Natural Gas, I find that the movement of Natural Gas futures seems to reflect liquidation pressure due to changes in from weekly withdrawals to weekly injections. No doubt that the cold weather continued to retreat during this week but at the same time, warmer conditions began to impact energy demand. On deep analysis of the historical movement of Natural Gas futures during the month of May, I find that the changing focus from heating degree days to cooing demand results in unexpected moves during the months of May and June most of the time in history because cooling demand has disproportionately stronger impact on storage forecast than changes in heating demand. I conclude that no doubt, Natural Gas futures possibly move downward after the announcement but a little positive in expected levels of stockpile will result in shooting of Natural Gas futures because the level of $2.717 and thereafter second level of $2.688 provide strong supports to Natural Gas futures. So, be prepared to see swinging moves of Natural Gas futures price as the Natural Gas futures are currently near the strong support levels.
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