NASDAQ 100: 16K Target Still on Track?
Dr. Arnout ter Schure | Jul 31, 2023 03:51PM ET
A week and a half ago, see here; our primary expectation based on our interpretation of the price action for the Nasdaq 100 using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) was:
"… a drop below $15725 will mean grey W-iv is underway to ideally $15525+/-25 from where grey W-v to ideally $16110+/-25 kicks in. The index will have to drop below the grey W-i high, $15275, to tell us the more significant red W-iv? is underway."
Fast forward, and the index opened below $15725 the day after our article was posted, reaching as low as $15429. Last week, the NDX bottomed out for three days at $15375, $15411, and $15416, respectively. Currently, it trades at $15750. Thus, the index dropped and bottomed out per our forecast. See the purple box in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1
Now that the index came within 0.80% of the ideal grey W-iv target zone and has since rallied back to the scene of the crime ($15750s), it appears the grey W-iii and W-iv completed July 19 and 27, respectively, and the grey W-v to ideally $16110+/-25 is underway. The index must break above the July 19 high at $15932 to confirm our anticipated W-v while always holding last week's lows.
Namely, a drop below $15375 will be our first signal the red W-c/iii has topped, and the index is ready to embark on at the least the red W-iv? correction to ideally $14400+/-200. That is not our preferred scenario, but in trading, one must always have a contingency plan to prevent havoc on one's portfolio.
From a trend perspective, the index is still well above its rising and bullishly stacked 20-day Simple Moving Average > 50d SMA >200d SMA, while the MACD is negatively diverging (orange arrow). Thus, the trend is still 100% Bullish, but the upside momentum is weakening. This setup matches our preferred EWP account as described above.
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