Littlefish FX | Jan 27, 2015 06:48AM ET
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (GMT) :
0930 GBP Prelim GDP q/q exp 0.6% v 0.7%
0930 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals exp 36.6K v 36.7K
1330 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m exp 0.6% v -0.4%
1330 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m exp 0.6% v -0.7%
1500 USD New Home Sales exp 452K v 438K
1500 USD CB Consumer Confidence exp 95.3 v 92.6
OVERNIGHT:
Much quieter start in G10 FX this morning in comparison to recent days, with most of the majors confined to relatively tight ranges. The DXY has retraced from yesterday’s highs and now sits just below the 95 level. Not overly surprising to see calmer price action, given the plethora of risk events the market has battled through already this year plus the impending FOMC meeting tomorrow
USD/JPY continues to struggle with offers in the late 118 area and larger orders ahead of 119.00. Japanese Economy Minister Amari’s remarks on inflation leeway and USD/JPY took the pair back through 118.20’s, to test bids at 118, if stops are triggered below the figure then better bids are reported at and just below 117.50, which should act as decent support on first test, Tomorrow’s FOMC policy decision will likely be pivotal in resolving the recent range trade in the USDJPY.
We have had a collection of comments from Eurozone ministers on Greece; as the anti-austerity government comes into place, market participants have asked what’s next? PM Tsipras will send his new finance minister to Brussels in coming days to renegotiate the bailout terms. EUR/USD did little on the news after reversing the spike lower in at the Asian open Sunday marking a break of the 2003 low EUR/USD traded back to unchanged on the day but has pulled back in Asia trade weighed on by EUR/JPY. EURUSD offers are reported 1.1290-1.1305 and stops thereafter.Hawkish comments from BOE’s Forbes have helped underpin GBP, and the short covering in EUR/USD has also brought GBP/USD a big figure higher from the Asian open Sunday. Currently,the pair has kept its bid tone and is hovering around 1.5100 ahead of today’s GDP release.
Elsewhere, only data release overnight came from Australia, where the NAB business numbers came in mixed with confidence slightly stronger and conditions slightly weaker. Results are consistent with still below-trend growth. AUDUSD reaction fairly muted as we currently lean against 0.7945 resistance.
Looking Ahead we get UK GDP in London session with US Durable goods and New Homes sales on the data slate during the New York session.
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: 1.10 psychological support eyed as 1.1330/50 caps upside
GBP: 1.5050 resistance eroded now support targeting 1.5150 upside hurdle
JPY: 119 – 117 range, upside break targets 2014 highs
CAD: 1.25 next resistance, 1.2350 support for next leg higher
AUD: 0.80 broken support becomes resistance to target .7750
KEY TRADES:
FX Pair | Short Term | Position/Date | Entry Level | Target | Stop | Comments |
EUR/USD | Bearish | Await new signal | ||||
GBP/USD | Bearish | Await new signal | ||||
USD/JPY | Neutral | Long Jan 16 | 116.91 | OPEN | 116.91 | Intraday Signal |
USD/CAD | Bullish | Await new signal | ||||
AUD/USD | Bearish | Await new signal |
ANALYSIS:
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
USD/CAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUD/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
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