Littlefish FX | Apr 10, 2015 05:45AM ET
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (BST) :
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.4% v -0.5%
13:30 USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
13:30 USD Import Prices m/m -0.4% v 0.4%
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6%
OVERNIGHT:
EUR/USD downtrend resumes due to the dollar strength and concerns in Greece, the pair fell from 1.0787 high to 1.0636 low. IMF managing Director Christine Lagarde confirmed that the Greece had made its 450mln repayment that was scheduled for Thursday. Interbank flow reports suggest many participants flattened out their risk and taken an Easter break it seems as though the pain trade has been and continues to be for a further slide. Real Mpney selling seemed to precipitate in the move and over the past 24 hours leverage and model accounts have needed to chase the move to get involved.
GBP/USD remained heavy and traded near the three-weak low at 1.4700s as the UK trade deficit was the widest in seven months in February. BOE kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and did not issue a statement. The minutes will be published on April 22 while traders will increasingly focus on the UK General Election at the beginning of May
USD/JPY climbed to day high at 120.70s post better than expected US jobless data. Supply in Japan’s economy continue to exceed demand in 4Q 2014; shortfall was equivalent to 0.1% of economy’s productive capacity. Inflationary pressures tend to increase when demand exceeds supply, according to the BOJ
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: While 1.09 contains upside expect retest of 1.06, above 1.09 refocuses on fourth 1.10 test
GBP: While 1.4970/90 contains upside expect retest of year to date lows
JPY: While 119.30/50 contains downside target 121.00 en route to retest of year to date highs, only below 118.30 concerns bullish view
CAD: While 124.50 contains downside target retest of year to date highs en route to 130.00
AUD: While .7760/80 contains upside anticipate third test of key .7550 failure here opens the bearish target of .72, above .7880 alleviates immediate downside pressure
KEY TRADES:
FX Pair | Short Term | Position/Date | Entry Level | Target | Stop | Comments |
EUR/USD | Bearish | Await new signal | ||||
GBP/USD | Bearish | Await new signal | ||||
USD/JPY | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
USD/CAD |
Bullish | Buy/Apr 09 | 1.2585 | Open | 1.2345 | Await new signal |
AUD/USD |
Bearish | Await new signal |
ANALYSIS:
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
USD/CAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUD/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
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