Littlefish FX | Jul 13, 2015 07:54AM ET
Market Commentary
EUR/USD opened 80 pips lower than Friday’s close, gapping down for the third week in a row. The market remains choppy but the pair inched higher all morning, following the same trend as the past few weeks. With news of a deal between Greece and its creditors, EUR/USD has jumped to 1.1197 so far, with details coming over the wires of a 50Bln Greek asset fund to be put in place by the Greek parliament, whereby the the Greeks must monetize state assets to cut debts and recapitalize banks in return for emergency funding. Expect EUR to be driven by headlines (though fatigue is setting in); trade in range of 1.1030 – 1.1230. Week ahead euro-area Finance Ministers meeting (Mon); GE Jul ZEW; GE Jun CPI; EC May IP; EU Finance Ministers meeting (Tue); FR Jun CPI (Wed); EC May trade; EC Jun CPI; ECB meeting (Thu); EC May construction output (Fri).
GBP bounced nearly 200pips higher from its day low last Fri into the week/Fri close (1.5517) on hopes of Greece deal; this morning seen around 1.55 levels. Week ahead brings BoE credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys (Mon); Jun CPI, PPI, RPI; ONS Jul house prices (Tue); May employment change, average weekly earnings (Wed).
USD/JPY pushed lower, tested 120.41 briefly on 8 Jul on safe-haven flows following risk-off sentiments driven by the Chinese stock market rout and Grexit concerns. Pair has since recovered towards the 123-handle, but has since eased as the risk of Grexit has risen. Only a close below 120 would cast doubt over USD/JPY’s medium-term bullish set-up. Quiet week ahead with just May industrial production (Mon); and BOJ policy statement/BOJ Kuroda press conference (Wed).
Technical Commentary
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
EUR/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bulish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
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