More USD Weakness to Come Ahead of U.S. Election?
MaiMarFX | Oct 12, 2020 05:55AM ET
We see that the currency pair has been moving in a general downtrend reaching a three-year low in March 2020 with the Covid-19 outbreak. Following the first coronavirus lockdowns and the downward pressure on the US economy we saw the US dollar losing ground and thus EUR/USD surging to a fresh two-year high at 1.2011.
Looking at smaller time frames such as the daily chart, we now see the pair fluctuating with a slight upward tilt after 1.16 proved to hold. With no particular events we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.19 and 1.17. An upside break above 1.1920 could lead to a test of the annual high at 1.2011 and even 1.21 whereas a sustained break below 1.1550 and 1.15 could increase bearish momentum toward 1.13/1.1280.
Amidst its primary downtrend, the cable was generally trading rangebound between 1.35 and 1.19. However, the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic did not leave this pair unaffected with the cable hitting an all-time low at 1.1409 in March 2020. Now that the market became complacent about dealing with the pandemic, we see GBP/USD moving within its price range with a tilt towards the upper border of its range at 1.32. Bulls should watch out for upside breaks above 1.32 and 1.3520, whereas bears could hope for accelerated momentum if current resistances at 1.3160/1.32 prove to hold.
Like other financial instruments we saw the DAX falling like a stone on the back of the corona virus outbreak in March 2020 and returning back to its usual price range between 13500 and 11500. We anticipate the index to trade slightly upwards toward 13270 and possibly 13500—the upper border of the current sideways range. However, a break below 12500 could increase bearish momentum toward lower targets at 12000.
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Things that move the market in the coming weeks:
- Second virus wave and new restrictions weighing on economies
- ECB ready to inject fresh stimulus to support the region’s economy
- U.S. election uncertainty until November 3
- U.S. stimulus saga rolls on while markets hope for greater stimulus if the Democrats do take control of the Senate. Currently, Joe Biden leads by 12 points in a national poll of likely voters.
- More U.S. dollar weakness ahead on rising likelihood of Joe Biden win
- A trade deal between the U.K. and European Union is still hanging in the balance.
- Today is the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. so volatility for USD pairs might be subdued.
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