Monday Lower
The Night Owl Trader | Oct 17, 2016 01:30AM ET
The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Monday lower.
- ES pivot 2130.83. Holding below is bearish..
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
So we called last Friday higher and that's what we got, though it was sort of a mirror image of Thursday. After an initial pop out the gate, the Dow spent the rest of the day retracing to end with just a 39 point advance. Technically, this tall inverted hammer doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Let's see what the new overnight might hold as we head into the start of a news-heavy October op-ex week.
The technicals
The VIX: On Friday the VIX came off its upper BB as expected and kept on going back down through its 200 day MA for a 3.4% loss. The pattern looks fairly bearish and the stochastic (bottom row on this chart) is on the verge of a bearish crossover.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:26 AM EDT with ES down 0.22%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2122.08 to 2130.83. That places ES back below its new pivot so this indicator is once again bearish.
The stars are definitely not all aligned tonight. The VIX in particular is looking rather bearish which ought to be good for the market. But the Dow with its gap-up inverted hammer isn't looking so hot, nor is the trans which also fell on a day the Dow moved higher. Oil also seems to be ready to move lower again and with futures guiding lower in the Sunday overnight I'm going to vote with the majority and call Monday lower.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.