Markets Driven By Brexit Polls As Vote Looms
Swissquote Bank Ltd | Jun 20, 2016 06:26AM ET
Risk appetite has come surging back as new polls on the EU referendum indicate that the “remain” campaign is closing the gap. The pound sterling rose the most among the G10 complex amid improving odds that the UK will remain within the European Union. Over the last few weeks the market has been moving back-and-forth between risk-on and risk-off mode as pollsters released contradictory temporary results. This morning, the latest poll showed that the “Stay” camp is gaining traction; therefore, the market has switched to risk-on mode with investors buying the pound sterling, the euro and equities, while dumping gold and the Japanese yen. A Bloomberg composite poll indicates a 45% to 42% lead for “remain”.
Investors are turning their back on the Japanese yen as risk sentiment improves. USD/JPY surged 0.50% at the opening and hit 104.85 before stabilising at around 104.65. However, we remain positive on the Japanese yen as we are heading towards the vote. The high uncertainty about the outcome, which is exacerbated by the weak reliability of polls in such a tight race, will be supportive for safe haven assets ahead of Thursday’s outcome.
Gold is having another tough day as it fell 1.20% in Tokyo. Even the uncertainty generated by the British situation has not allowed the yellow metal to break the strong resistance implied by the high from January 22nd 2015 at $1,307.62. Gold prices will continue to trade sideways ahead of Thursday. In the event of a Brexit, the price of gold will most likely go through the roof, moving quickly towards the 1,400 level. However, if Brits decide to stay in the EU, gold will reverse sharply, with the 1,200 level as the first target.
EUR/USD also had a great night. The single currency gained 0.80% against the greenback and is now moving towards the 1.14 resistance area (previous high and psychological level). From our standpoint, the single currency is the riskiest currency to hold ahead of the Brexit vote as the consequences for the EU are very unclear and will likely generate a high degree of political uncertainty. We therefore recommend caution when trading EUR crosses.
In the equity market, Asian regional markets were trading higher across the board with the exception of Chinese equities. The Nikkei and Topix index were up 2.43% and 2.44%. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng rose 1.23%, while in Taiwan, the Taiex surged 0.68%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.05%, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite added 0.27%. In Europe, futures are trading in positive territory with futures on Footsie surging 2.66%. US futures are also pointing towards a higher open.
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Currency Tech
EUR/USD
R 2: 1.1416
R 1: 1.1303
CURRENT: 1.1231
S 1: 1.1132
S 2: 1.1098
GBP/USD
R 2: 1.4660
R 1: 1.4328
CURRENT: 1.4239
S 1: 1.4006
S 2: 1.3836
USD/JPY
R 2: 107.89
R 1: 106.58
CURRENT: 104.21
S 1: 103.55
S 2: 100.78
USD/CHF
R 2: 0.9920
R 1: 0.9783
CURRENT: 0.9642
S 1: 0.9578
S 2: 0.9444
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