Market Wrap-Up: Leaders And Laggards
Matt Simpson | Apr 07, 2014 12:54AM ET
Oil: saw a recovery at the end of the week to see Brent close back within the 4-year triangle it had broken out of on Wednesday. Despite both WTI and Brent closing the week down there is potential for a bullish hammer to have formed on the weekly charts to suggest near-term strength and pending USD weakness.
Gold: closed back above $1300 and hit our near-term bullish target against the recent bearish trend.
Silver: closed back below $20 despite repeated attempts to break above this resistance level. Whilst price action appears to be corrective (to suggest another low) we have to consider the potential for a basing pattern forming. I take $20 to be a key level to watch as the decline from $21.50 has lost momentum.
h3 INDICES: /h3Reversal candles have formed on the weekly charts across US, Europe and Asia to warn of continued weakness.
Despite a positive start to the week for most Friday's NFP quickly eroded any gains and we await Asia to open to see if there is a continuation from Friday's sentiment.
NASDAQ saw the largest single down day since June 2012, shedding -2.9% by Friday close. S&P produced a bearish outside day and closed down -1.8% to suggest a swing high has formed (at the record his).
h3 FOREX:/h3We had discussed the potential for CAD strength in last week's webinar and we finally saw the follow through following Friday's employment figures. CAD saw reduced unemployment (at 4-month low) with improved job creation which resulted in USDCAD breaking below 1.10 and closing the week at an 8-week low.
The AUD continued to enjoy the bullish limelight and continues to look string going into this week. We saw the required retracement to 0.920 and now eyeing up our 0.9350 target.
The NZD experienced a 'cooling off' period but technically and fundamentally I expect it to continue to strengthen over the coming weeks and months due to the increased interest rate and positive economic data. However take note that Reversal candles have formed on the weekly charts with NZD/CAD seeing an Evening Star Reversal and NZD/USD a Hanging Man. Whilst they do not confirm reversals they do highlight potential weakness and indecision.
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The USD Index closed the week above 80.50 but also saw a Rikshaw Man Doji to suggest near-term weakness. EURUSD continued to decline following Draghi's Dovish comments but bearish momentum is waning so I see potential for near-term gains this week. The USD/JPY broke below 103.40 support which is now resistance during early Asia trading.
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