Market Weekly update 31/3-4/4
NSFX | Mar 31, 2014 03:03AM ET
Good Morning,
Equities in US last week had a mixed performance: the DJIA gained 19 points at 16,240 (+0.12% weekly) and the S&P500 lost 7 points at 1,850 (-0.38% weekly). Nasdaq underperformed the others gauges and lost 75.25 points at 3,563 (-2.07% weekly) and biotechnology shares had a weight in the negative performance of the index. There is uncertainty in the stock market and investors are evaluating fundamentals for future trading decisions.
In the FX market UsdCad dropped 161 pips at 1.1059 (-1.43% weekly). The pair rose more than 10% from the beginning of 2013 and likely the loonie dollar will rally if traders are not going to place fly to quality trades that lift the US dollar. EurUsd lost 40 pips at 1.3752 (-0.29% weekly) and is the second consecutive weekly drop for the most traded currency pair. UsdChf gained 40 pips at 0.8868 (+0.45%) and is making higher highs even often it closed much below its intraday highs. UsdJpy is trading in trading in a 330 pips range in the latest 2 months and a breakout will likely bring UsdJpy to a correction or a new multiyear high. The pair closed on Friday at 102.81 (+0.54% weekly), up 55 pips. The Aussie dollar outperformed the Kiwi dollar when compared against the greenback: AudUsd rose 171 pips at 0.9249 (+1.88% weekly) and NzdUsd gained 118 pips at 0.8649 (+1.38%).
Considering that commodity currencies gained against the US dollar and Copper and softs like Sugar and Coffe rose more than 5% last week precious metals now are considered safe haven trades. Gold lost 41.6$ at 1,294.4/oz (-3.11% weekly) and Silver closed at 19.62 $/oz (-2.41% weekly). Crude Oil consolidated above 100$/ barrel at 101.63 (+2.18% weekly) and Natural Gas after five consecutives negative weeks closed at 4.47 $/BTU (+3.69% weekly).
Today at 23:15 GMT will be released in Japan the Manufacturing PMI followed at 23:50 by the Industrial Production; traders with Japanese Yen positions should pay attentions to those figures that likely will increase volatility during the Asian session. On Monday at 07:00 GMT Swiss Leading Indicator (Mar) should have a weight on the Swiss Franc performance. At 09:00 GMT will be released the Eurozone CPI and at 12:30 figures regarding Canadian Gross Domestic Product might give momentum to the Loonie dollar. On Tuesday at 01:00 GMT the Chinese Manufacturing PMI data will have a relevant impact not only during the Asian session and at 03:30 GMT the Reserve Bank of Australia will make a decision regarding interest rates, at the moment at 2.5%. At 08:30 GMT in UK will be released the Manufacturing PMI and at 09:00 GMT the Eurozone unemployment rate will be the most important data of the European session. At 14:00GMT in US the Institute of Supply Management will release the Manufacturing data, expected at 54. A value above 50 means economic growth. The previous month the data was at 53.2. On Wednesday the most relevant data will come from the US with Mortgage Application at 11:00 GMT and Employment Change at 12:15 GMT. On Thursday at the non Manufacturing PMI figures in China at 01:00 GMT could decide the direction of risk taking positions. The world second economy is decreasing its growth rate and the credit bubble that is hurting the real estate market might convince Chinese authorities to decide for a stimulus plan that likely would mean further monetary expansion. At 11:45 GMT the European Central Bank will make a decision for interest rates, now at 0.25%. There is a probability that given Mario Draghi recent comments on the risk of deflation that the Eurotower might cut other 10 basis points interest rates. At 12:30 GMT the weekly appointment with US claims and at 14:00 the ISM non Manufacturing will be the most relevant data of the American session. On Friday at 12:30 GMT Non Farm Payrolls will be the most important data of the day. The Unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 6.6% from 6.7%. The FED target is a rate below 6%. At the same time will be released the Canadian unemployment rate.
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