Anthony M. Cherniawski | Dec 02, 2013 02:52AM ET
SPX spent its third week in a throw-over above its massive Ending Diagonal.While most throw-overs are measured in 60 to 90 day Ending Diagonals, this one is 2 ½ years old. Thanksgiving week is often considered the “peak week” of the positive season for stocks, so this week’s performance is no surprise.What is a surprise is a “key reversal” in which the SPX nearly gave up all of its gain for the week. The reversal from the top may be violent.
(ZeroHedge) Despite a significant tumble into the close ($3.25bn notional sold in last 4 seconds of S&P futures); for the first time since January 2004, the S&P 500 has risen for eight straight weeks.
NDX is at double resistance.
This week NDX is again pressing against two upper trendlines, that of the Massive Ending Diagonal and the upper trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation. While Ending Diagonals often have throw-overs, Broadening Tops do not. This suggests that NDX may be approaching the end of the line as it presses to meet the Broadening Top trendline for the last time.
With Thanksgiving comes Black Friday and Cyber Monday, two of the biggest days for retail stocks each year. Thanksgiving isn't just an opportunity to gorge on turkey; it's also one of the most important weekends of the year for the retail sector. As much as 40% of American shopping occurs on the now infamous Black Friday and Cyber Monday – the first two business days that fall after Thanksgiving. But to complicate the matter, meteorologists are tracking an epic super-storm that is slowly working its way east, threatening to bring even more chaos to the holiday season. So who will win?
The Euro may have completed its bounce.
It was not all good news however, and when one looks at Europe's weakest link - youth unemployment - the number once again rose to a fresh all-time high, of 24.4%...
The Yen slides toward its Head & Shoulders neckline.
The Yen continues its slide toward the Head & Shoulders neckline at 96.00.The Yen may break down beneath the neckline in a Primary Wave [5] in a very strong Primary Cycle decline through that may last into the New Year.
When Abenomics was unveiled in Japan upon the re-election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister in late 2012, it is safe to say that, having been mired in a 20-year deflationary spiral and with debt totaling 240% of GDP, Japan was nearing an endgame of sorts.
Realizing just how late in the game he found himself, Abe promised to change all this, but in order to do so he needed to pursue a high-risk strategy with a low probability of success.
The press (ever hungry for a new, catchy portmanteau word) dubbed it "Abenomics."
The US Dollar completes a bullish Flag formation.
Gold dipped beneath a small Head 7 Shoulders neckline at 1235.00, but snapped back above it.Currently it is challenging its Cycle Bottom resistance at 1243.58, but may be losing its upward momentum. The nearer term target is the completion of its smaller Head & Shoulders formation at or near 1070.00. I hope that I am wrong on the lower target, which may arrive in 2014.
There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in "reputable" media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to "provide liquidity", or when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take "complicated" financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything.
Treasuries loses upward momentum.
USB stayed beneath Intermediate-term resistance at 131.97and appears uncertain about the direction it may take. It may retrace to its weekly Short-term resistance at 132.29, but will meet trendline resistance there, as well, so the upside potential is limited.However, crossing Cycle Bottom Support and its Broadening Wedge trendline at 129.71 may have devastating consequences for the Long Bond.
U.S. Treasury bonds fell Friday and wrapped up a monthly price loss as fears grew that the Federal Reserve might dial back its bond buying before the end of the year.
Next week's nonfarm jobs report is seen by many bond traders and investors as the key factor determining the timing for the Fed to cut, or taper in Wall Street terms, its $85 billion monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
Fed officials have said that when to adjust the pace of its bond buying, a key tool to stimulating the economy following the 2008 financial crisis, hinges on the health of the economy, especially U.S. employment.
Crude may be extending its decline.
The price of oil was little changed above $92 a barrel Friday as holidays in the U.S. thinned trading and plentiful crude stocks showed the market was well supplied.By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark U.S. crude for January delivery was up 27 cents at $92.57 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile. Crude's last settlement was Wednesday as floor trading on the Nymex was closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Oil has declined from about $110 in September due to reduced tensions in the oil-rich Middle East, but above all due to muted demand and high supplies.
China stocks repelled at trading channel trendline.
BKX came close to last week’s target before “giving it up.”On Friday it made a weekly key reversal, which suggests the rally is now done. Next week may give us the parameters for the downside targets.
The Fed's Catch 22 just got catchier. While most attention in the recently released FOMC minutes fell on the return of the taper as a possibility even as soon as December (making the November payrolls report the most important ever, ever, until the next one at least), a less discussed issue was the Fed's comment that it would consider lowering the Interest on Excess Reserves to zero as a means to offset the implied tightening that would result from the reduction in the monthly flow once QE entered its terminal phase…After all, the Fed's policy book goes, if IOER is raised to tighten conditions, easing it to zero, or negative, should offset "tightening financial conditions", right? Wrong. As the FT reports leading US banks have warned the Fed that should it lower IOER, they would be forced to start charging depositors.
In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.
How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!
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