Market Update – 02-12-2016
AvaTrade | Dec 02, 2016 05:34AM ET
Today is the NFP which as always will be in focus, and today especially as the expectation is that the FED will raise the interest rate in 2 weeks. Only a very bad NFP is expected to be able to derail that, so anything that comes in above 125K is expected to be good enough, even if the expectation is for 165K.
Something else that will be on the mind of a lot of traders is the Italian referendum which will take place on Sunday, and on the same day also the Austrian elections. Could this shake up European unity further, or will the results reassure politicians across Europe?
h3 Currencies/h3EUR/USD – will be very much in focus today and early next week. Not only because of the NFP today, but also due to the Italian referendum and the Austrian elections. These could prove to create more threats to the stability of the EU, depending on the results. We are trading at a 2 week high at the moment
USD/JPY – has moved down, as also the USD weakened, but as mentioned yesterday, the trend of the last weeks has been that any downwards move is followed by another jump up. Will the NFP cause this, or will it make the USD weaken further?
GBP/USD – moved up sharply and broke above the resistance which was in place in recent days around the 1.25 level, as the EU could be willing to find ways for the UK to be able to access the internal market. This is a change of earlier comments, which were much tougher on the UK, and if true, would be very good for the UK economy.
USD/CAD – dropped sharply to the support around the 1.3289 level as the CAD continued to benefit from the higher oil price and also the weakening USD.
S&P 500 – moved down due to a drop in the technology sector which weighted more that the gains in the energy and financial sector. As mentioned earlier this week, if we see a correction, the first test will be at the familiar 2167 level, which is also the first Fibonacci retracement level.
XLF – has risen over 15% since Donald Trump was elected president.
Oil – continued to move up on the backdrop of the OPEC-agreement, but it was stopped at the resistance and has failed to far to mark a new high of the year. A more in depth analysis can be found
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