Market Review: Week Ending February 1, 2013
ReThink Market Advisors | Feb 01, 2013 06:33PM ET
For the week ending February 1, 2013, the SPX was up 0.7%, the Russell small caps were up 0.6% and the COMP was up 0.9%.
The only noticeable divergence within the indices is the Nasdaq 100 which has failed to take out prior highs and has shown a clear loss of momentum. Technically it has not violated support and therefore remains in an uptrend.
Other indices also remain in an uptrend as daily support has not failed though they too are showing a loss of upside momentum. If you are long equity, stops that are recommend are roughly 1,490 on the S&P500, 895 on the Russell and 3,140 on the Composite.
FX markets are fueling risk as the JPY pairs are at an extreme overbought level. Position data is confirming that a trend reversal in USD/JPY is probable. As a result the model remains flat here as the risk reward is not currently favorable for equity markets.
Asset Class Correlations
For the week ending February 1, 2013, the EUR was up 1.3%, copper was up 3.3%, 30 year yield was up 8bp and the Aussie Dollar was down 0.2%.
The model has triggered short AUD/USD which will likely put downward pressure on the JPY pairs next week and pressure copper and yield lower. The EUR remains in an uptrend and the dollar is technically short though we anticipate as part of a JPY unwind a short EUR and long DXY in the foreseeable future.
The multi-month divergence with equity and the EUR, AUD, copper and 30 year yield remains. As a result equity may show greater relative weakness as part of any future asset class convergence. Using any of these asset classes as a directional indicator may likely produce false signals. Our preference is to use JPY pairs.
There remains a divergence with the 5 year Treasury break even though they did rise 13bp on the week thus reducing this divergence.
Get The News You Want
Sentiment
Market sentiment remains extremely complacent as viewed through the options market with the VIX at a 6 year low. Implied volatility skew though has been rising averaging 122.60 for the week and closing at 122.55.
Skew is a measure of how implied volatility is distributed. The lower the reading the less skewed the curve, indicating a normalized distribution.
Funds Flow
For the period ending January 24, 2013, $3.5 billion flowed in to domestic equity funds while $8.0 billion flowed in to both municipal and taxable bonds. After nearly a year of continuous equity outflows, this is the third consecutive inflow into domestic equity funds.
For the month of December, domestic equity funds had a net outflow of $22.0 billion while bond funds had a net inflow of $9.8 billion. For 2012, domestic equity funds had a net outflow of $149.3 billion while bonds funds had a net inflow of $295.4 billion.
Bottom Line
Equity markets are technically in an uptrend as are all asset classes. But with the extreme levels on all major JPY pairs the model remains flat equity. We view other asset classes more favorable from a risk reward standpoint.
JPY cross pairs need to be monitored closely for any signs of an unwind. They remain highly stretched at current levels with COT data confirming a probable reversal. This will pressure other risk assets ahead of the general equity markets.
About The Big Picture: All technical levels and trends are based upon Rethink Market Advisor models, which are price and momentum based. They do not use trend lines nor other traditional momentum studies.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.