Market Recap: AUD/USD Licks Its Wounds
Matt Simpson | Apr 28, 2014 02:19AM ET
A snapshot view of last week's money flow and technical notes for the week ahead.h3 FOREX:/h3
AUD/USD: 2nd consecutive bearish weekly close - below 0.930 target 0.920
GBP/USD: produced shooting star reversal (also an inside week) to suggest a weakness at the multi-year highs. COTS report also show az reduction of long positions among Large Specs;
USD/CAD: produced a low-volatile doji above 1.10 support - awaiitn next catalyst but lacks momentum
USD/CHF: Shooting Star Reversal warns of near-term weakness
USD/JPY: also produced a narrow-ranged Doji benlow Montly Pivot; bias is for a move down to 101.70
NZD/USD holds above 0.8550 support with a Gravestone Doji; however this may highlight weakness to the bearish move from 0.873 highs
Gravestone Doji's formed on US Equities weekly candles to suggest near-term weakness.
AUS200: traded to its highest level since May 2008;
Hang Seng: saw its most bullish weekly close in 7 weeks;
Nikkei 225: is coiling up within potential bullish wedge which correlates very closely with the USD/JPY;
The AUD/USD continues to lick its wounds following the disappointing CPI figures and poor Chinese manufacturing data. The releases triggered a break below 0.93 and hit our initial target of 0.925. Bearish momentum has since slowed and retracing towards 0.93 resistance, but as long as it remains below 0.93-9308 then our next target remains 0.920.
The markets will keep an eye on FOMC meetings to see if the anticipated $10bn tapering continues. However, this is likely to be overshadowed by Friday’s NFP (Nonfarm payrolls) and US unemployment rate. With an estimated 207k jobs created in the US this is the highest forecast since June 2010. At or above forecast should be bullish for the Greenback and US Equities, particularly if unemployment remains at or below 6.6%.
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