Market Outlook: GBP/USD Continues To Trend Higher
FinFX | May 07, 2014 04:11AM ET
EUR/USD
The Euro ended three-week long phase where the price was entrenched within 1.3773/1.3904 range. Break higher signals eventual completion of corrective phase off 1.3965, 13 Mar peak, with clear break above the latter, required to resume larger uptrend from 1.2042, 2012 low. Immediate targets lie at psychological 1.4000 level and 1.4255, 76.4% retracement of 1.4938/1.2042 descend, with the third wave from 1.2744, Jan 2013 higher low, able to extend to 1.4456, its 100% Fibonacci expansion. On the downside, previous resistance at 1.39 zone, now offers initial support, with any stronger pullback, expected to find ground above strong supports and previous range floor at 1.38/1.3780 zone, to keep immediate bulls intact. Technicals on larger timeframes remain positive and keep the upside favored, while short delay could be caused by corrective easing on south-heading hourly studies.
Resistance: 1.3950; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4050
Support: 1.3900; 1.3880, 1.3850; 1.3813
EUR/JPY
The pair continues to trade in the range mode, with near-term price action moving close to lower boundary of the range. Repeated failures to sustain gains above 14tiot2 barrier triggered fresh move lower that weakened near –term technicals. Immediate risk lies at 141 zone and range floor, violation of which would expose next strong support at 140 and signal daily double-top formation on a break lower. The notion is supported by weakening daily studies. Only clear break above 142.40/46 peaks would provide relief.
Resistance: 141.70; 142.00; 142.46; 143.00
Support: 140.97; 140.41; 140.21; 140.00
GBP/USD
Cable continues to trend higher and comes ticks away from the next target and psychological barrier at 1.7000. Further extension higher is expected to open 1.7041, 2009 high, as break above monthly bullish pennant signals the major reversal of multi-year 2.1161/1.3501 downtrend. Clear break above 1.7041 is required to confirm such scenario and expose next target at 1.7331, 50% retracement of 2.1161/1.3501 descend. Near-term technical are positively aligned and keep the upside favored, however, hesitation on approach to 1.7000/41 barriers, cannot be ruled out, with initial support laying at 1.6920/00 zone and higher platform 1.6760 expected contain any stronger pullback.
Resistance: 1.7000; 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150
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Support: 1.6918; 1.6900; 1.6841; 1.6821
USD/JPY
The pair remains under pressure in the near-term, after pullback from psychological / Fibonacci 103 barrier lost 102 support. Sustained break below 102 handle confirmed near-term bears and open key supports at 101.31/20 for test. Negative hourly and 4-hour studies, favor further downside. Also daily indicators, establishing in the negative territory, support the notion. Break below short-term base at 101.20 to confirm completion of 101.20/104.11 corrective phase and open psychological 101 support, reinforced by 200SMA. Conversely extension above 102.70, previous range top, would sideline near-term bears..
Resistance: 101.74; 101.85; 102.00; 102.30
Support: 101.31; 101.20; 101.00; 100.60
AUD/USD
Near-term structure tuned positive after the price found footstep at 0.9200 support and fresh extension higher retraced over 61.8% of 0.9460/0.9201 descend. This improves the tone and averts immediate downside risk, with clear break above 1.9370 lower platform, required to confirm and open way towards key 0.9460 barrier, 10 Apr peak. Overall picture remains bullish and sees resumption of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 2013 low, once 0.9460 is cleared. Psychological / Fibonacci 76.4% resistance is seen as next barrier,. Immediate support lies at 0.93 zone, with key level and breakpoint standing at 0.92 area.
Resistance: 0.9370; 0.9390; 0.9446; 0.9500
Support: 0.9315; 0.9300; 0.9226; 0.9201
AUD/NZD
The pair maintains overall negative tone and continues to trend lower, extending weakness off new highs just above 1.09 handle. The price reached over 138.2% Fibonacci expansion of the wave from 1.0868, with 1.0615, 161.8% expansion seen next and full retracement of 1.0535/1.0907 upleg, being in play. Negative technicals on all timeframes support the notion, with current corrective action expected to interrupt bears and ideally to be capped under 1.08 barrier, psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0907/1.0646 descend support. On the larger picture the price remains entrenched within 1.0488/1.0942 range and moves around range’s mid-point.
Resistance: 1.0777; 1.0807; 1.0845; 1.0868
Support: 1.0700; 1.0638; 1.0615; 1.0600 957.
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