Market Outlook: Cable Remains Pressured
FinFX | May 15, 2014 04:06AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro showed not much of the action, as the remains under pressure and consolidation above 1.37 handle and fresh low at 1.3688 is under way. Overall bearish tone keeps the downside preferred, with consolidative action expected to hold below initial 1.3770 barrier, ahead of fresh push lower. Key near-term target lies at 1.3670, 04 Apr low, break of which to confirm completion of short-term corrective phase and signal double-top formation ahead of further weakness. Corrective actions should be capped by 1.38 psychological / Fibonacci 38.2% resistance, to keep bears intact. Alternatively, rally above 1.38 handle would signal stronger recovery and put bears on hold.
Resistance: 1.3729; 1.3773; 1.3800; 1.3840
Support: 1.3688; 1.3670; 1.3642; 1.3619
EUR/JPY
Yesterday’s fresh weakness, triggered on the upside rejection near 141 barrier, eventually broke below strong 140 support, short-term base and the midpoint of 136.21/143.78 ascend. Overall outlook remains negative and sees potential for bearish resumption towards the next target at 139.10, higher platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, as the price establishes below 140 handle. However, descend may be delayed for corrective action, as 4-hour studies are extended. Initial resistance lies at previous support at 140, also daily Ichimoku cloud base, with the next strong barrier at 141, reinforced by daily 20/55SMA’s bear cross, is expected to cap extended recovery rallies.
Resistance: 140.00; 140.26; 140.55; 141.00
Support: 139.44; 139.10; 139.00; 138.00
GBP/USD
Cable remains pressured and continues to move lower, eventually breaking below 1.68 support and posting fresh low at 1.6752. Near-term studies are negative and favor further downside, as bulls on the larger timeframe lost bullish momentum and will be likely sidelined in favor of fresh weakness. Loss of 1.6730/20, 50% retracement of 1.6464/1.6995 upleg / daily 55SMA, to confirm. Corrective rallies face immediate barrier at 1.68 zone, while 1.69 lower top and Fibonacci 61.8% of descend from 1.6995, should keep the upside attempts limited.
Resistance: 1.6786; 1.6800; 1.6829; 1.6873
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Support: 1.6752; 1.6730; 1.6700; 1.6667
USD/JPY
The pair lost traction and fell below 102 handle, posting fresh low at 101.66, Fibonacci 76.4 retracement of 101.42/102.35 ascend. Fresh bulls, established on a rally from 101.42 and break above 102 handle, are now on hold, as neat-term studies turned negative. This shifted focus lower for possible retest of very strong 101/40/20 support zone. However, bulls may be revived if fresh recovery attempts emerge above 102 and regain 13 May’s fresh high at 102.35, where rally was capped by daily cloud base. Otherwise, negative tone would prevail and focus lower boundaries short-term range.
Resistance: 102.00;102.15; 102.35; 102.78
Support: 101.78; 101.66; 101.42; 101.31
AUD/USD
The pair’s general positive tone remains in play after probe above 0.94 barrier and subsequent pullback to 0.9360, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9332/0.9407 upleg. Extended consolidation is expected to precede eventual push towards key 0.9460 barrier, 10 Apr peak, to complete corrective phase and resume broader uptrend. Clear break higher to expose 0.9500, round figure resistance and 0.9541, 03 Nov 2013 peak in extension. Only loss of 0.9320 trendline support would delay bulls, while break below key 0.9200 handle is required to bring bears in play.
Resistance: 0.9383; 0.9400; 0.9460; 0.9500
Support: 0.9360; 0.9345; 0.9332; 0.9320
AUD/NZD
The pair’s near-term price action is at the back foot, as corrective pullback off fresh 1.0874 peak extended below initial 1.0833 floor and cracked 1.08, psychological support. Immediate bulls may be delayed, as hourly indicators are negative and 4-hour indicators are falling below their midlines, with increased downside risk seen on a break below 1.0786, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0644/1.0874 ascend and 100SMA at 1.0750. Reversal above the latter would keep hopes of fresh attempt at key 1.09 barrier and break above short-term congestion in play. Otherwise, further range trading would be likely scenario on confirmed recovery rejection.
Resistance: 1.0825; 1.0840; 1.0868; 1.0874
Support: 1.0786; 1.0750; 1.0730; 1.0700
XAU/USD
Spot Gold remains unchanged and trades in extended sideways mode, after false attempts to break out of the range in both directions. Overall tone remains negatively aligned and keeps the downside vulnerable. However, fresh attempts above initial 1300 barrier, reinforced by 20/200 SMA death cross and yesterday’s close above the latter, may be initial signal of fresh recovery. Regain of lower tops at 1315 is required to confirm scenario. Improved near-term studies support the notion for now, with corrective dips to be contained above 1290 level.
Resistance: 1308; 1315; 1320; 1330
Support: 1300; 1290; 1284; 1277;
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