Market Outlook: AUD/USD Near-Term Structure Remains Positive
FinFX | Jun 10, 2014 04:34AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro’s recovery attempts off fresh low at 1.3502 remain limited under 1.37 resistance zone, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of entire 1.3992/1.3502 descend. This keeps the first break point at 1.3730 lower platform intact for now, as overall picture stays bearish. Weaker near-term studies shift focus lower again, as the price returns to the previous base at 1.36 zone and reversal pattern forming on a daily chart, along with 20/200SMA death-cross, maintaining downside pressure. Daily close below 1.36 handle is required to confirm negative stance for repeated attack at 1.3500/1.3475 breakpoints, loss of which to confirm double-top formation and trigger stronger correction of one-year uptrend from 1.20 zone.
Resistance: 1.3676; 1.3700; 1.3733; 1.3750
Support: 1.3580; 1.3561; 1.3502; 1.3475
EUR/JPY
The pair’s near-term structure is losing traction after brief attempt through 140 barrier and subsequent pullback to 139, psychological support and mid-point of 137.96/140.07 upleg. Increased downside risk could be expected on a loss of 138.66 spike low, also near 61.8% retracement, as overall bears remain in play and near-term studies turned negative. Corrective rallies should stay capped under 139.40/50 zone, to keep fresh bears in play. Conversely, ability to hold above 138.66, with regain and break above 139.50 hurdle, would keep fresh attacks at 140.00 barrier on the table.
Resistance: 139.25; 139.40; 136.65; 140.07
Support: 138.96; 138.66; 138.13; 137.96
GBP/USD
Cable consolidates recent gains on a recovery rally from 1.6691, trading in a sideways mode under fresh high at 1.6844. As the downside stays protected at 1.6770 zone, also 20/55SMA bull-cross and near-term studies are positively aligned, renewed attempts higher should be favored in the near-term. Break above 1.6844 high to resume recovery and open 1.6880 lower top, ahead of key hurdles at 1.6917/19. However, clearance of main bear-trendline at 1.6830 zone, is seen as minimum requirement to signal bullish resumption.
Resistance: 1.6830; 1.6844; 1.6880; 1.6900
Support: 1.6782; 1.6767; 1.6749; 1.6725
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USD/JPY
Near-term price action is losing ground as the pullback off fresh high at 102.78 extends lower and threatens key near-term support and pivotal point at 102.10. Hourly studies turned negative, while 4-hour indicators are at their midlines. Weakness below 102.10/00 supports, also 50% retracement of 101.41/102.78 upleg , to confirm reversal and allow for stronger correction. On the other side, overall bullish tone, keeps the upside favored, with 102 zone seen as ideal reversal point for fresh attempt at key 103 barrier and resumption of larger up-move from 100.81, 201 May low.
Resistance: 102.63; 102.78; 103.01; 103.75
Support: 102.25; 102.10; 101.79; 101.41
AUD/USD
The pair's near-term structure remains positive, with the price action heading towards 0.94 barrier, on a rally from 0.92 base. Extension above the next impotent barrier at 0.9407, is required to confirm reversal and base formation at 0.92 zone, for eventual push to the key 0.9460 peak. Hesitation on approach to 0.9407 could not be ruled out, with 0.93 support area, seen as ideal reversal point, before fresh attempt higher.
Resistance: 0.9374; 0.9407; 0.9460; 0.9500
Support: 0.9350; 0.9333; 0.9318; 0.9300
AUD/NZD
The pair remains supported and undergoes near-term consolidation, after probing above psychological 1.1000 barrier, with 1.1030 zone, 50% retracement of 1.1576/1.0488, being tested so far. Consolidative action should precede fresh attempt higher, as larger bulls are intact and the price consolidates around broken 200 SMA. On the lower timeframes, bulls are in play on 4-hour chart, while hourly technicals are neutral. Dips should be ideally contained above 1.09 higher platform, to keep the structure intact.
Resistance: 1.1019; 1.1030; 1.1044; 1.1100
Support: 1.0985; 1.0965; 1.0933; 1.0910
XAU/USD
Spot Gold consolidates bounce off fresh lows at 1240 zone, which remains capped by 4-hour 55SMA under initial 1260 barrier for now. Neutral near-term studies see prolonged sideways movements as favored in the near-term. However, fresh attempts higher and potential break through 1260/68 barrier, would signal stronger recovery attempts, as daily indicators start to point higher and RSI is out of oversold zone. Otherwise, increased downside risk could be expected, as long as the price holds below 1268 barrier, with loss of near-term range lows at 1250/45, required to confirm negative stance.
Resistance: 1257; 1260; 1268; 1277
Support: 1250; 1245; 1240; 1237
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