FOMC Scenarios For S&P 500 Futures June 2015
Trader Moe | Mar 18, 2015 10:27AM ET
Potential Triangle Right Shoulder, Potential Inverse H & S Right Shoulder, Potential Lower Low
- ES may be forming a triangle here, which would be a triangle right shoulder on its inverse H&S.
- Or it may be forming an inverse H&S right shoulder here, which would mean a deeper dip this morning.
- Or it could still go for a lower low here for this correction. (That is a less likely scenario because of the formation at the current low of this dip.)
Any of those are bullish for immediately after the move or formation completes. A right shoulder triangle on an inverse H&S tends to break out upwards.
A lower low here would just complete a larger falling megaphone and make a new high more likely after. The most bullish scenario would be a tag of the bottom of the potential new price channel (orange on chart) followed by a new high within the channel.
During triple witching the (ARCA:SPY) put-call ratio usually closes Thursday at or through the ratio’s bottom Bollinger Band®, and it gets there on a rally. The FOMC announcement is an obvious potential catalyst.
The easiest play here is to be out of the market until it makes a breakout through the top of the falling megaphone. That’s the bright blue falling trend line that ES is now massing against. The breakout would be a set-up to go long to roughly the current high. The massing itself suggests a breakout imminent.
If ES confirms the new orange price channel, the target may change. If ES should complete a triangle here and break out downwards from it (unlikely), that would be a set-up to short to a probable lower low.
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