Macro-Markets Risk Index
James Picerno | May 30, 2013 12:20AM ET
A markets-based profile of US economic conditions suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (May 28) at 15.6%--well above the danger zone of 0% and within the roughly 10%-to-17% range that's prevailed so far in 2013. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
MMRI represents a subset of the indicators in thesee this post , which introduced the index. Meanwhile, here's how MMRI compares on a daily basis since August 2007:
Here's how MMRI stacks up so far this year, through May 28:
1. The credit spread data uses a 260-day window rather than a 250-day window as a proxy for one-year changes because the High Yield Master II Index data set is published on weekends as well as weekdays. As a result, a slightly longer time window is required to approximate a one-year period that aligns with the one-year data for stocks and oil prices, which aren't published on weekends.
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