Loonie Continues Higher After Turning Bullish
Zachary Storella | Jul 14, 2014 01:22AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators slightly added to their US dollar bullish bets last week for the first time in four weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $10.34 billion as of Tuesday July 8th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.69 billion from the $8.65 billion total long position that was registered on July 1st, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The aggregate US dollar position had fallen for three straight weeks before last week’s turnaround. The overall dollar standing has now remained on the bullish side for nine consecutive weeks after crossing from bearish to bullish on May 13th.
Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while there were weekly decreases for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 8th and provides a snapshot of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were betting in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
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Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:
- The Canadian dollar's positions continued higher after turning bullish (for the first time since February 2, 2013) on July 1st. CAD bets have increased four straight weeks as Canadian dollar strength has pushed the USD/CAD exchange rate under 1.0700
- The euro's bearish positions edged lower last week. Bearish bets are hovering near -60,000 contracts for a 5th week and potentially signaling this could be a near term bottoming in bearish positions
- The pound's positions saw bullish bets fall sharply last week off of the highest level of the year
- Japanese yen short positions rebounded last week & went back over -60,000 contracts. The USD/JPY has been under the 102 level for a third straight week
- The Australian dollar net positions edged lower last week after overall bullish positions reached a new high level since April 2013 the previous week
- New Zealand dollar positions advanced for a third week as the NZD/USD exchange rate continues to trade higher and above 0.8750 last week
Please see individual currency charts and more data below.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price /h3EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 280747 | 57109 | 90134 | -33025 | -16392 |
| 06/10/2014 | 331636 | 43739 | 100924 | -57185 | -24160 |
| 06/17/2014 | 285489 | 51405 | 113240 | -61835 | -4650 |
| 06/24/2014 | 291244 | 55062 | 112565 | -57503 | 4332 |
| 07/01/2014 | 291488 | 52665 | 113441 | -60776 | -3273 |
| 07/08/2014 | 294381 | 51595 | 110860 | -59265 | 1511 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 239604 | 79476 | 44502 | 34974 | -330 |
| 06/10/2014 | 271602 | 85202 | 49360 | 35842 | 868 |
| 06/17/2014 | 250231 | 100434 | 47838 | 52596 | 16754 |
| 06/24/2014 | 254369 | 98098 | 48347 | 49751 | -2845 |
| 07/01/2014 | 255911 | 99929 | 43517 | 56412 | 6661 |
| 07/08/2014 | 254788 | 86614 | 44975 | 41639 | -14773 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 171804 | 12578 | 86796 | -74218 | -15182 |
| 06/10/2014 | 201094 | 11893 | 94055 | -82162 | -7944 |
| 06/17/2014 | 153007 | 17832 | 85870 | -68038 | 14124 |
| 06/24/2014 | 148257 | 10325 | 81548 | -71223 | -3185 |
| 07/01/2014 | 156480 | 18739 | 77425 | -58686 | 12537 |
| 07/08/2014 | 157710 | 11174 | 77549 | -66375 | -7689 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 48936 | 11907 | 13919 | -2012 | 1860 |
| 06/10/2014 | 52445 | 9615 | 12645 | -3030 | -1018 |
| 06/17/2014 | 32259 | 15296 | 11776 | 3520 | 6550 |
| 06/24/2014 | 33599 | 9069 | 14441 | -5372 | -8892 |
| 07/01/2014 | 35221 | 9731 | 16991 | -7260 | -1888 |
| 07/08/2014 | 35053 | 9136 | 15949 | -6813 | 447 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 130275 | 32519 | 55250 | -22731 | -921 |
| 06/10/2014 | 125832 | 30303 | 54411 | -24108 | -1377 |
| 06/17/2014 | 132209 | 34582 | 56115 | -21533 | 2575 |
| 06/24/2014 | 103193 | 40595 | 45915 | -5320 | 16213 |
| 07/01/2014 | 111438 | 44755 | 42060 | 2695 | 8015 |
| 07/08/2014 | 128555 | 58245 | 47950 | 10295 | 7600 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 110911 | 56811 | 35284 | 21527 | 5679 |
| 06/10/2014 | 128984 | 62141 | 33894 | 28247 | 6720 |
| 06/17/2014 | 99400 | 61078 | 34049 | 27029 | -1218 |
| 06/24/2014 | 101998 | 65612 | 32149 | 33463 | 6434 |
| 07/01/2014 | 114918 | 76598 | 37719 | 38879 | 5416 |
| 07/08/2014 | 101860 | 66705 | 30102 | 36603 | -2276 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 30066 | 22400 | 4869 | 17531 | -413 |
| 06/10/2014 | 32946 | 20401 | 3546 | 16855 | -676 |
| 06/17/2014 | 28467 | 21671 | 17938 | 3733 | -13122 |
| 06/24/2014 | 31415 | 24855 | 18703 | 6152 | 2419 |
| 07/01/2014 | 33455 | 26563 | 17578 | 8985 | 2833 |
| 07/08/2014 | 36123 | 26750 | 12334 | 14416 | 5431 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 06/03/2014 | 162647 | 105666 | 19650 | 86016 | 2715 |
| 06/10/2014 | 200202 | 106566 | 16363 | 90203 | 4187 |
| 06/17/2014 | 135017 | 91227 | 22152 | 69075 | -21128 |
| 06/24/2014 | 128333 | 84943 | 15974 | 68969 | -106 |
| 07/01/2014 | 129425 | 85387 | 15825 | 69562 | 593 |
| 07/08/2014 | 126231 | 82777 | 13966 | 68811 | -751 |
Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
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