Long-Term Trend Monitor: S&P 500, Gold
Tim Ord | Feb 25, 2015 01:53PM ET
- Monitoring purposes SPX: Long S&P 500 on 2/3/15 at 2050.03.
- Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD) long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
- Long-Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Timers Digest recorded the Ord Oracle #6 in performance for 3 months updated February 13, 2015.
The chart above looks at the short-term picture for the SPY. Normally these indicators on this chart will show bullish or bearish signs before a top or bottom is completed. The top window is the McClellan Oscillator and reading above “0” are a bullish sign for the market and today’s reading came in at 55.97. Next window down is the NYSE up volume/NYSE down volume/ NYSE down volume/ NYSE up volume. This ratio does a good job helping to identify a trend by staying on a bullish or bearish crossover. The red arrows represent the bearish crossovers which one was triggered today. The bottom window is the NYSE advance with 5 period moving average and NYSE Decline with a 5 period moving average. The red arrows represent the bearish crossovers. The advance decline moving averages is holding on to a bullish signal. Two of the three indicators are on bullish signals, which implies the short term trend remains up but weakening. Long SPX on 2/3/15 at 2050.03.
The above chart looks at the bigger picture. The top window is the McClellan price Oscillator and second window form top is the McClellan Volume Oscillator. When the market is vulnerable for a top the McClellan price and Volume oscillator are below “0”. We have identified previous instances with red arrows when both oscillators where below “0”. Current reading for the Price Oscillator is at 77.56 and the Volume Oscillator at 41.84 and implies the market is safe for now. The bottom window is the NYSE common stock only advance/decline line. Since mid January the A/D line has been making higher highs and higher lows and a bullish sign for the NYSE longer term. When this A/D line makes lower highs when NYSE makes higher highs are signs the market is heading for trouble. There could be a consolidation in the not so distance future, but with the indicators on this page showing bullish signs, the potential consolidation should be mild.
Get The News You Want
Today’s low went below the top of “A” leg and suggests that an “ABC” pattern was in progress from the November low and opens the door to a test or break of the November low at some point. However our longer term charts suggests a test (or modest break) of the November low is likely rather than a new leg down. There could still be a bottom forming here and a bounce up but likely the best Market Vectors Gold Miners (ARCA:GDX) could do is a test of the January high near 23 range. GDX/GLD ratio is still showing a positive divergence and a bounce may form here. We put a dark blue line 7 period moving average on the GDX chart and when its above this line, decent rallies formed and when below this line decent declines formed. Right now GDX is below this trend line and suggests the short term trend is down. A close above 21 most likely will turn this line up and a bullish short term sign. Seasonality charts turn back to bullish in the June to July period. We are back on the sidelines for now. For free 30 day trial just drop us a line to tim@ord-oracle.com.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above. Copyright 1996-2014. To unsubscribe email to tim@ord-oracle.com.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.