Little Cyprus, Big Aid Package
Marc Chandler | Mar 18, 2013 01:34PM ET
This Great Graphic was posted on FT Alphaville, which in turn got it from Soc Gen. It ranks modern aid packages in terms of the recipient's GDP.
Assuming that the Cyprus parliament approves some version of the tax on depositors -- the newly elected president seems to favor a tax on small depositors -- and a complete catastrophe is avoided, Cyprus will have the second largest aid program at 56% of GDP, just below Indonesia's 57% package in 1997 and Argentina's 56% package in 1980.
As ironic as it may seem, granting our assumption, Cyprus will be getting more assistance than the other euro-area countries. Cyprus participated in the aid programs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. At their peak, Cyprus banking assets were roughly eight times GDP, making them too big for the government to save. They made a big bet on Greek sovereign bonds and lost their proverbial shirt (~4.5 bln euros).
A Disorderly Default
The failure to reach an agreement will see the ECB no longer allow the Cypriot central bank to lend to the insolvent local banks under the Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) program. This would trigger a complete collapse of the Cyprus financial system and would produce a disorderly default, crushing small depositors and small and a medium enterprises.
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