Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: The Latest Look At The Long-Term Trend
Doug Short | Sep 02, 2015 12:16AM ET
For the past few years we've been following a couple of transportation metrics: Vehicle Miles Traveled and Gasoline Volume Sales. For both series we focus on the population adjusted data. Let's now do something similar with the Light Vehicle Sales report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This data series stretches back to January 1976. Since that first data point, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (i.e., driving age not in the military or an inmate) has risen 62%.
Here is a chart, courtesy of the FRED repository, of the raw data for the seasonally adjusted annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month. This is a quite noisy series, to be sure. The absolute average month-over-month change is 4.5%.
The latest data point is the preliminary August count published by WardsAuto puts the July number at 17.7 million, a 1.3% increase.
The first chart shows the the series since 2007, which illustrates the dramatic impact of the Great Recession. The blue line smooths the volatility with a six-month moving average, which helps us visualize the trend.
Here is a the complete series data from 1976. We've added a linear regression (the red line) is added to further illustrate the direction of the long-term trend.
In the chart above, the latest moving average value is 3.7% below is record high in May 2000.
Here is the same chart with two key modifications:
- We've created a per-capita version using the FRED's CNP16OV series for the adjustment.
- We've indexed the numbers so that the first data point, January 1976, equals 100.
Get The News You Want
The moving-average for the per-capita series peaked in February 1979. Thirty-five-plus years later, it is now down 28.1% from that August 1978 peak month.
The good news is that this adjusted metric has continued to rise from its Great Recession historic low, and it is comfortably above the linear regression. It will be interesting to see if the post-recession growth continues in the years ahead.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.