Leaders And Laggards: S&P, DJI At 8-Week Low, Gold Trends Higher
Matt Simpson | Apr 14, 2014 02:21AM ET
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Currency wars are back on the agenda following Draghi talking the Euro down over the weekend and Thomas Jordon, Swiss National Bank's Governor, stating they won't hesitate to take action to defend the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 if the Euro continues to weaken. This could lead to some interesting price action on USD/CHF which currently trades 70 pips above 2.5yr lows and within a potential bullish wedge.
AUD monetary policy minutes will be released tomorrow, following their decision to not change the overnight cash rate. The minutes may reveal which way the RBA are leaning towards interest rate hike later this year, as some non-mining sectors are now gaining traction.
NZ quarterly CPI is released on Wednesday where a significant positive reading would increase the chances of further rate increase sooner than later from RBNZ.
China GDP, Industrial Output and Fixed Asset Investment will be closely watched this week to see if growth has slowed down, below the target "about" 7.5%. Negative numbers could weigh down on the AUD and NZD.
Fed Chair Lady Yellen speaks on Thursday and the market will be paying close attention to her wording around timing of interest rate hikes, following comments from FED board members to downplay her signals of raising rates within 6 month.
FOREX:
AUD/USD closed below 0.94 and produced a shooting star reversal and hanging man reversal beneath this level for the last 2 trading sessions of the week. Technically remains bullish but highlights potential for near-term weakness below 0.94
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EUR/USD Draghi jawboned the Euro during the G20 meetings to see it gap down 42 pips following Friday's Rikshaw Man Doji candle. 1.38-825 is likely support near-term; If it holds above here 1.40 remains next target whilst a break below opens up 1.375
GBP/USD Evening Star reversal on daily chars warns of a deeper retracement towards 1.66
USD/CAD closed above 1.90 and likely to retest 1.10 today. Below here may see another leg lower below last week's 1.085 lows; above 1.10 may see a retest of the broken trendline around 1.11
USD/CHF trades within potential bullish wedge on the weekly chart but trend is clearly bearish at present following last week's Bearish Engulfing close
USD/JPY Evening star reversal on daily charts warns of continued weakness with price now testing from June 2013
INDICES:
With corporate earnings in US this week we can expect some movements on equities.
NASDAQ saw its worst performing week since Dec '12 and resting precariously on 3423 support after breaking out of a bullish channel from June '13 low.
S&P and DJI are at an 8-week low but holds above bullish trendline
COMMODITIES:
Gold continues to trend higher on the intraday timeframes and above the weekly Morning Star Reversal pattern;
Silver still within a sideways range but has potential for a bearish flag or a bullish bottoming pattern; Currently trading just above weekly pivot at $20 so near-term threat is bullish but overall bias is bearish
WTI continues the bullish sentiment during Asia trading and on track to retest $105 resistance; Currently at a 6-week high.
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