Large FX Speculators Increased USD Net Bullish Positions Last Week
Zachary Storella | Jun 28, 2015 01:38AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currenciesh3
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators added to their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week following a sharp reduction in bullish bets the previous week that brought the USD bullish level to its lowest level in almost a year.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $26.07 billion as of Tuesday June 23rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.25 billion from the $23.82 billion total long position that was registered on June 16th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar speculative level has been under the $30 billion level for five out of the last seven weeks.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the British pound sterling, Swiss franc and the Mexican peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 23rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price/h3EuroFX: The large speculative euro positions decreased last week after seeing improving positions for the previous three weeks. The overall bearish positions now sit right below -100,000 contracts. On the commercial trader side, bullish contracts were added to after three weeks of declines.
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Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 428580 | -10542 | 208434 | -8734 | -168339 | 10637 |
| 20150526 | 431927 | 3347 | 208443 | 9 | -171740 | -3401 |
| 20150602 | 428403 | -3524 | 207136 | -1307 | -165512 | 6228 |
| 20150609 | 436540 | 8137 | 176715 | -30421 | -137974 | 27538 |
| 20150616 | 350145 | -86395 | 122971 | -53744 | -89357 | 48617 |
| 20150623 | 345427 | -4718 | 131909 | 8938 | -99306 | -9949 |
British pound sterling: Large speculator British pound bets increased last week for a second week although bets remain overall bearish at -22,194 contracts. Commercial traders cut their overall bullish positions for a 2nd week to a small bullish position of +15,587 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 182607 | -979 | 23388 | -15599 | -23362 | 7407 |
| 20150526 | 176797 | -5810 | 26865 | 3477 | -25539 | -2177 |
| 20150602 | 175291 | -1506 | 28514 | 1649 | -25658 | -119 |
| 20150609 | 181049 | 5758 | 30440 | 1926 | -28277 | -2619 |
| 20150616 | 146635 | -34414 | 25547 | -4893 | -25434 | 2843 |
| 20150623 | 178641 | 32006 | 15587 | -9960 | -22194 | 3240 |
Japanese yen: Large speculator Japanese yen bets declined last week to an overall bearish level of -87,717 contracts after rising sharply the previous week. The commercial traders raised their overall bullish position last week by over +4,000 contracts to a total net position of +135,324 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 231658 | 38362 | 70583 | 11569 | -22005 | 1588 |
| 20150526 | 251744 | 20086 | 117958 | 47375 | -62224 | -40219 |
| 20150602 | 260104 | 8360 | 140846 | 22888 | -85693 | -23469 |
| 20150609 | 306449 | 46345 | 174477 | 33631 | -116286 | -30593 |
| 20150616 | 262329 | -44120 | 130620 | -43857 | -80664 | 35622 |
| 20150623 | 247839 | -14490 | 135324 | 4704 | -87717 | -7053 |
Swiss franc: Large speculator Swiss franc bets increased last week and boosted the overall bullish position to over +7,000 contracts. The commercial trader position slightly added to their small existing bearish position (-3,348 contracts).
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 31796 | -1669 | -8395 | -990 | 9405 | -1145 |
| 20150526 | 30432 | -1364 | -6281 | 2114 | 8330 | -1075 |
| 20150602 | 32449 | 2017 | -4873 | 1408 | 8359 | 29 |
| 20150609 | 33813 | 1364 | -5885 | -1012 | 10129 | 1770 |
| 20150616 | 19852 | -13961 | -1509 | 4376 | 5358 | -4771 |
| 20150623 | 21869 | 2017 | -3348 | -1839 | 7072 | 1714 |
Canadian dollar: Speculative Canadian dollar bets dropped last week and fell further into bearish territory at -17,579 contracts. Commercial traders accumulated Canadian dollars for a fifth straight week to an overall bullish position of +24,406 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 117811 | -6097 | -1396 | -2089 | 4348 | 8330 |
| 20150526 | 121908 | 4097 | -365 | 1031 | 7333 | 2985 |
| 20150602 | 123127 | 1219 | 12334 | 12699 | -1025 | -8358 |
| 20150609 | 118799 | -4328 | 22678 | 10344 | -13745 | -12720 |
| 20150616 | 118620 | -179 | 22962 | 284 | -12281 | 1464 |
| 20150623 | 81380 | -37240 | 24406 | 1444 | -17579 | -5298 |
Australian dollar: Large speculators cut Australian dollar bets last week by approximately -5,000 contracts as the net bearish position rose to over -9,000 contracts. The commercial traders added to their net bullish holdings by almost 5,000 contracts last week to the total net bullish position of +24,475 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 142589 | 6340 | 4058 | -6267 | 7323 | 2836 |
| 20150526 | 144495 | 1906 | 11898 | 7840 | 6422 | -901 |
| 20150602 | 156474 | 11979 | 33511 | 21613 | -13256 | -19678 |
| 20150609 | 165681 | 9207 | 34010 | 499 | -14027 | -771 |
| 20150616 | 119362 | -46319 | 19713 | -14297 | -4048 | 9979 |
| 20150623 | 116184 | -3178 | 24475 | 4762 | -9052 | -5004 |
New Zealand dollar: Large speculator New Zealand dollar positions declined last week to fall for the seventh out of the last eight weeks with the large spec NZD positions bearish at -13,563 contracts. The commercial traders added to their bullish positions by +4,808 contracts last week to an overall net position of +17,506 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 26331 | 806 | 3676 | 4231 | -2231 | -4001 |
| 20150526 | 28514 | 2183 | 7660 | 3984 | -5087 | -2856 |
| 20150602 | 33005 | 4491 | 13187 | 5527 | -10539 | -5452 |
| 20150609 | 36911 | 3906 | 15032 | 1845 | -11795 | -1256 |
| 20150616 | 37169 | 258 | 12698 | -2334 | -9168 | 2627 |
| 20150623 | 42911 | 5742 | 17506 | 4808 | -13563 | -4395 |
Mexican peso: Speculative Mexican peso bets rebounded last week by +24,623 contracts after falling for five straight weeks. Commercial traders cut their bullish positions last week by -23,250 contracts to an overall net bullish position of +31,172 contracts.
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150519 | 127349 | -8177 | 33589 | 3566 | -31331 | -4292 |
| 20150526 | 129030 | 1681 | 36053 | 2464 | -32516 | -1185 |
| 20150602 | 152809 | 23779 | 48239 | 12186 | -45127 | -12611 |
| 20150609 | 179026 | 26217 | 55973 | 7734 | -51132 | -6005 |
| 20150616 | 133660 | -45366 | 54422 | -1551 | -52490 | -1358 |
| 20150623 | 111876 | -21784 | 31172 | -23250 | -27867 | 24623 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm ).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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