Large Forex Speculators Added To USD Bullish Positions For 4th Week
Zachary Storella | Oct 24, 2016 01:42AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for a fourth week in a row and to the highest overall standing since late January.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $18.44 billion as of Tuesday October 18th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of $3.72 billion from the $14.72 billion total long position that was registered on October 11th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The US dollar speculative leveled above the +$10 billion level for a third straight week and rose to the highest level since January 26th when the aggregate US dollar bullish position totaled $23.85 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the major currencies that improved against the US dollar were the Mexican peso (+21,073 weekly change in contracts), New Zealand dollar (+7,583 contracts), British pound sterling (+3,912 contracts) and the Australian dollar (+3,876 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-15,796 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-8,918 contracts), Swiss franc (-6,969 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-2,594 contracts).
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
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Please see the individual currency charts below.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
Mexican Peso:
*COT Report:The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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