USD Bullish Positions Down, GBP Bearish Positions Up
Zachary Storella | Dec 23, 2018 01:19AM ET
Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the U.S. Dollar Index futures markets this week while also adding to their British pound bearish positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of U.S. Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 36,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, December 18th. This was a weekly decrease of -2,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,122 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position declining by -3,362 contracts to a weekly total of 43,298 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decrease by just -1,289 contracts for the week to a total of 7,249 contracts.
The USD Index speculative position has now declined for five consecutive weeks and has dipped to the lowest bullish level since September 11th of this year.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.
British pound sterling bets dropped sharply by over -18,000 contracts this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The current standing is now at the most bearish level since September 25th when the net position totaled -67,078 contracts.
Mexican peso bets dropped by over -10,000 bets this week and for the second time in the past three weeks. The speculative position has now flipped over to a net bearish level for the first time since June 26th.
New Zealand dollar bets strongly jumped this week by over +18,000 contracts and have now gone back into an overall bullish position. This is the first time speculators have been bullish on the NZD since June 12th.
Australian dollar speculators continued to reduce their bearish bets this week and trimmed the position by over +10,000 contracts this week. Speculative bets have now improved seven straight weeks and by a total of +35,343 contracts. The Aussie spec level is at the least bearish position since June 12th of this year.
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Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (3,163 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (4,212 contracts), Australian dollar (10,462 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (18,652 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the U.S. dollar index (-2,073 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-18,304 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,165 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,659 contracts), and the Mexican peso (-12,211 contracts).
See the table and individual currency charts below.
EuroFX:
The euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly change of 3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,287 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -60,723 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly drop of -18,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,419 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -102,771 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -5,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,606 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,926 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,267 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of -7,457 contracts this week. This was a gain of 4,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,669 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -35,069 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,531 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 3,411 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly gain of 18,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,241 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of -769 contracts this week. This was a weekly fall of -12,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,442 net contracts.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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