Large Currency Speculators Reduced US Dollar Bullish Bets For 5th Week
Zachary Storella | May 03, 2015 01:54AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to cut back on their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a fifth straight week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.75 billion as of Tuesday April 28th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.12 billion from the $37.87 billion total long position that was registered on April 21st, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since December 16th when net positions equaled $34.64 billion.
Weekly Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the British pound sterling and the Mexican Peso.
Notable Changes:
- The euro bets gained sharply by 16,879 contracts to under -200,000 net contracts for the first time since March
- Japanese yen bets improved for a third week and holds only a small bearish position (-5,493 contracts)
- Swiss franc bets improved slightly for a 3rd week to raise its small bullish position to +1,335 contracts
- New Zealand dollar positions gained for a seventh week and rose higher into bullish territory (+10,180 contracts)
- Mexican peso bets declined for a 2nd week and fell further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th
This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
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Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for euro FX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 460950 | 50148 | 271111 | 10.9 | 58.8 | -220963 | -27189 |
| 03/31/2015 | 459746 | 41709 | 268269 | 9.1 | 58.4 | -226560 | -5597 |
| 04/07/2015 | 441624 | 39444 | 254702 | 8.9 | 57.7 | -215258 | 11302 |
| 04/14/2015 | 453518 | 45264 | 257611 | 10 | 56.8 | -212347 | 2911 |
| 04/21/2015 | 457610 | 46821 | 261466 | 10.2 | 57.1 | -214645 | -2298 |
| 04/28/2015 | 456919 | 50734 | 248500 | 11.1 | 54.4 | -197766 | 16879 |
British pound sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for pound sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 178140 | 35938 | 74495 | 20.2 | 41.8 | -38557 | -706 |
| 03/31/2015 | 182514 | 35143 | 71773 | 19.3 | 39.3 | -36630 | 1927 |
| 04/07/2015 | 185219 | 37641 | 71942 | 20.3 | 38.8 | -34301 | 2329 |
| 04/14/2015 | 189513 | 33993 | 70038 | 17.9 | 37 | -36045 | -1744 |
| 04/21/2015 | 175066 | 34830 | 64111 | 19.9 | 36.6 | -29281 | 6764 |
| 04/28/2015 | 171698 | 33239 | 67367 | 19.4 | 39.2 | -34128 | -4847 |
Japanese yen:
Last Six Weeks data for yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 181026 | 39156 | 85061 | 21.6 | 47 | -45905 | 2149 |
| 03/31/2015 | 177478 | 44409 | 68333 | 25 | 38.5 | -23924 | 21981 |
| 04/07/2015 | 189444 | 53320 | 77769 | 28.1 | 41.1 | -24449 | -525 |
| 04/14/2015 | 195230 | 54783 | 77853 | 28.1 | 39.9 | -23070 | 1379 |
| 04/21/2015 | 189332 | 51520 | 65968 | 27.2 | 34.8 | -14448 | 8622 |
| 04/28/2015 | 188079 | 48721 | 54214 | 25.9 | 28.8 | -5493 | 8955 |
Swiss franc:
Last Six Weeks data for franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 36296 | 12604 | 16559 | 34.7 | 45.6 | -3955 | -6190 |
| 03/31/2015 | 34149 | 13679 | 12973 | 40.1 | 38 | 706 | 4661 |
| 04/07/2015 | 33245 | 12746 | 12626 | 38.3 | 38 | 120 | -586 |
| 04/14/2015 | 33935 | 12240 | 12070 | 36.1 | 35.6 | 170 | 50 |
| 04/21/2015 | 31727 | 11105 | 10770 | 35 | 33.9 | 335 | 165 |
| 04/28/2015 | 31585 | 11144 | 9809 | 35.3 | 31.1 | 1335 | 1000 |
Canadian dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 106731 | 19193 | 51849 | 18 | 48.6 | -32656 | 166 |
| 03/31/2015 | 110447 | 18771 | 48389 | 17 | 43.8 | -29618 | 3038 |
| 04/07/2015 | 114881 | 22081 | 52100 | 19.2 | 45.4 | -30019 | -401 |
| 04/14/2015 | 118686 | 23020 | 53598 | 19.4 | 45.2 | -30578 | -559 |
| 04/21/2015 | 126801 | 33343 | 60394 | 26.3 | 47.6 | -27051 | 3527 |
| 04/28/2015 | 128938 | 33858 | 54767 | 26.3 | 42.5 | -20909 | 6142 |
Australian dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 135693 | 52079 | 80447 | 38.4 | 59.3 | -28368 | 439 |
| 03/31/2015 | 138260 | 55814 | 80170 | 40.4 | 58 | -24356 | 4012 |
| 04/07/2015 | 159532 | 55928 | 96209 | 35.1 | 60.3 | -40281 | -15925 |
| 04/14/2015 | 161971 | 55077 | 97510 | 34 | 60.2 | -42433 | -2152 |
| 04/21/2015 | 153363 | 55570 | 90233 | 36.2 | 58.8 | -34663 | 7770 |
| 04/28/2015 | 140298 | 53753 | 81158 | 38.3 | 57.8 | -27405 | 7258 |
New Zealand dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 20958 | 12149 | 13015 | 58 | 62.1 | -866 | 275 |
| 03/31/2015 | 24049 | 16443 | 12412 | 68.4 | 51.6 | 4031 | 4897 |
| 04/07/2015 | 24920 | 16950 | 11172 | 68 | 44.8 | 5778 | 1747 |
| 04/14/2015 | 25176 | 17081 | 11078 | 67.8 | 44 | 6003 | 225 |
| 04/21/2015 | 26617 | 18473 | 9985 | 69.4 | 37.5 | 8488 | 2485 |
| 04/28/2015 | 28071 | 18281 | 8101 | 65.1 | 28.9 | 10180 | 1692 |
Mexican peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/24/2015 | 150320 | 35044 | 76144 | 23.3 | 50.7 | -41100 | 14839 |
| 03/31/2015 | 157688 | 43289 | 73578 | 27.5 | 46.7 | -30289 | 10811 |
| 04/07/2015 | 151072 | 42185 | 65110 | 27.9 | 43.1 | -22925 | 7364 |
| 04/14/2015 | 130501 | 63521 | 55160 | 48.7 | 42.3 | 8361 | 31286 |
| 04/21/2015 | 118074 | 50343 | 64018 | 42.6 | 54.2 | -13675 | -22036 |
| 04/28/2015 | 138497 | 38003 | 61394 | 27.4 | 44.3 | -23391 | -9716 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
/h3
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