Labor Report Rocked Markets Few Follow
Eric De Groot | Nov 08, 2015 12:25AM ET
The markets didn't rock on the jobs report because they're already looking past it.
The business cycle, a concept believed manageable or dead by countless experts, has been pushing a hesitant Fed into policy corner. The Fed either raises rates soon, or prepares itself for the inevitable finger pointing (of blame) when the invisible hand, the true driver of the business cycle and global economic policy, force them to do so under a backdrop of fear, panic, and unexpected market moves - bonds, stocks, currencies, precious metals, etc.
The Economic Activity Composite (EAC) generated bearish crossover in August (chart 1). This followed the first bearish crossover since 2011 in early 2015. A series of down impulses suggests not only an economic contraction in the United States (and global economy) but also a transition from prosperity to liquidation with a business cycle that too many believe can be managed or doesn't exist. The upside reaction in the US dollar index, a flight of quality trade that certain 'rocked' currency desks across the globe, indicates that small, yet highly influential minority recognizes not only the transition but also that the Fed can't do a damn about it.
Liftoff, a policy change that even the media struggles to justify now, will not be proactive. Perhaps the Fed, likely influenced by politics and their own hype, still believes they're ahead of the curve. It really doesn't matter. The invisible hand rules the show.
Chart 1: EAC 2000-Present
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