Labor Market Conditions Index: August 2015 Preview
James Picerno | Sep 08, 2015 05:02AM ET
The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index is expected to tick lower to 1.0 in today’s update for August vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction suggests that labor market conditions weakened slightly in August vs. July.
By comparison, a recent survey of economists points to a modest improvement in the Labor Market Conditions Index for August vs. the previous month.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s average prediction:
VAR-3: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
R-1: A R .
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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