July 2012 Pending Home Sales Data Improves. However ….
Econintersect LLC | Aug 30, 2012 04:16AM ET
According to Econintersect, the July 2012 pending home sales index released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggests:
- August 2012 unadjusted existing home sales of 445,000 (see details below);
- If this 407,000 historical correlation is correct, this would only be a 4.0% gain year-over-year in August existing home sales, and the 14th month in a row of year-over-year gains.
- unadjusted actual July existing home sales were up 6.2% month-over-month, Up 11.4% year-over-year. Note that Econintersect is suggested a significantly poorer August existing home year-over-year sales growth compared to July.
The (cash buyers analysis here) . A quick cash home sale process could begin and end in the same month.
On the other hand, contracts for short sales can sometimes take months to close. Interpreting the pending home sales data is complicated by weighing offsetting effects in the current abnormal market.
Please note that Econintersect uses unadjusted data in its analysis.
Econintersect determines the month-over-month change by subtracting the current month’s year-over-year change from the previous month’s year-over-year change. This is the best of the bad options available to determine month-over-month trends – as the preferred methodology would be to use multi-year data (but the New Normal effects and the Great Recession distort historical data).
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