Ivy Portfolio For December
Scott's Investments | Dec 02, 2012 03:02AM ET
Early in 2012 www.personalcapital.com
The backtest results for the Ivy 5 Portfolio since 2007 and 10 month simple moving average with a monthly update are charted below. For the backtests, iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (AGG) was used in lieu of BND and iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) was used in lieu of VEU because they have longer trading histories:
The Ivy 10 Portfolio, using a 10 month moving average and updated monthly has performed as follows since 2008 and is compared to VBINX. Again, AGG and EFA were used in the backtests. A starting date of 2008 was used in the first chart because only 8 of the 10 ETFs in the list were available at the start of 2007. The second charts shows the performance since 2007
The strategy’s strength is avoiding significant drawdowns during periods of market turbulence, such as 2008. During periods of strong uptrending equity markets it has the potential to under-perform a benchmark like VBINX or SPY. ”Choppy” markets, in which markets are trend-less can also reduce the strategy’s returns as securities bounce above and below long-term moving averages without establishing a trend.
The current signals based on November 30th’s closing prices are below. International equities and international real estate are the strongest sector in terms of their percent above their 10 month moving average. Commodities and US REITs are the weakest sectors.
The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted price data:
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