It’s A Bear Market, After All
Tim Knight | Mar 14, 2022 10:53AM ET
They gotcha, didn’t they? Just like they got me last time. Here we were, a bunch of Slopers, scurrying around, shrieking, doing each other’s hair, and in general acting all willy-nilly, about yet another tradeable bottom “the S&P 500 Futures is gonna gap up 50 points” embarrassment. And, hey, you weren’t far off. You got yer fifty points.
But, like the old turkey of a hundred years ago, but upside-down, what I’m trying to convince myself of is the simple fact, “It’s a bear market, after all.” My sense is that all this chatter about cease fires and peace talks is just a gambit to play for time and make tactical, military progress. And as I’ve said repeatedly, but being such a fast typist, I’ll bang out again – – they could declare peace, love, and understanding the moment I publish this post, and the market is still astronomically overvalued. As. Tro. Nom. Ically.]
See, I keep thinking back to both 2000 and 2008. In those years, the market in general did start breaking down, but there was a big chunk of the market that not only didn’t play along, but kept soaring, thus preserving the hopes of our bullish friends.
In 2000, it was networking stocks. The market topped in March, but stuff like Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) kept celebrating life through the summer. In 2008 in was energy. The market had already peaked in the summer of 2007, but energy (and commodities overall) kept having their Globalization Party before they not only joined the downturn, but exacerbated.
Thus, last week, when people were shrieking about how oil was going to $300/bbl, I figured it was the end of the road.
And, as much as I love gold, even that market has seen the froth blown off the top of its beer stein. I did a post on Friday to gold and platinum members offering XME as a cool short , so we’ll see how that plays out.
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Observant Slopers know that our uncommonly common friend TNRevolution has turned his oily eyes over to the world of bonds, which he is bearish of in Gartman terms. TNR’s success compels me to believe he’s going to have another one, and frankly, that’s just fine and dandy with me, because……..
……..plunging bonds mean rising interest rates, which would be precisely what My Favorite Short In the History of Anything, iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR), calls for.
I am coming into the day with 37 short positions and a goodly amount of cash. I suspect I’ll be deploying that among a few of the dozens of other prospective ideas I’ve got in my bear pen.
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