ISM Manufacturing Index, July Preview: Modest Increase Expected
James Picerno | Aug 03, 2015 12:15AM ET
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to post a modest increase to 54.3 in today’s update for July vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook still calls for moderate growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
By comparison, three consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists anticipate a lesser gain for the July ISM data relative to the previous month.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s average prediction:
VAR-1: A “vars” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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