ISM Manufacturing Index, January 2015 Preview: Decline Expected
James Picerno | Feb 01, 2015 11:52PM ET
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 55.0 in tomorrow’s update (Feb. 2) for January vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains firmly in growth territory for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
Compared with three consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists, The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for January is at the upper range of the projections.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s median prediction:
VAR-1: A “vars” package.
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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