The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 56.8 in tomorrow’s update for August vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The estimate is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains firmly in growth territory.
The Capital Spectator’s median projection is near the low end of the range for three consensus forecasts via recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
