Is Yellen Long Gold?

 | Nov 13, 2013 05:38PM ET

Gold is down nearly $100/ounce in the last two weeks but appears to be finding support at the same level that supported futures in mid-October. This has dragged December prices to oversold levels. It will take a trade back above the blue down-sloping trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci level just above $1280 to confirm an interim low.

Consecutively Negative
This marks the third consecutive negative week but the pace of selling seems to be slowing. My suggestion is to wait for confirmation because if we see the red horizontal line penetrated, I expect to see a trade closer to $1200.

Slightly Bullish
Wednesday's pop was likely due to the release of the Federal Reserve's nominee Janet Yellen's written testimony. Don't rule out fireworks at her address. A direction should be determined in the coming sessions and I am leaning slightly bullish after the recent correction. As opposed to a trade recommendation like I generally offer, I wanted to outline a trade set up.

Play the break below $1250 or above $1280. Once the direction of the leg is decided I will issue my trade recommendation.