Michele Schneider | Jul 16, 2024 02:36AM ET
With the aftermath of the horror of the weekend, the market responded with presuppositions of a Trump victory.
However, we believe that these presuppositions might be a bit premature. November is still far away and January 2025 is even further away.
And the market, although tends to run 6 months in advance, behaved as if it knows that:
I have 2 reactions to this:
Thus far, July has followed the bullish seasonality.
The peak tends to happen on July 17th and August tends to be a negative month.
Yet happily, we have a new 6-month calendar range reset, which I will be discussing on a webinar Tuesday.
Let’s see what Granny Retail XRT has to say.
First off, XRT closed in the red.
Secondly, we now have last Friday’s high 77.66 to use for our calendar range high. That is the level to watch now.
As for the low, 73.11 is the support level to hold.
While the phase is bullish in price, and PAY ATTENTION, this is super important, Real Motion or the momentum indicator, is not above its 50-DMA.
Why is that important?
Well, I suggest you sign up to hear me speak. For now, though I will tell you that at these huge calendar inflection points that could be a really ominous warning.
While we are certainly not panicking as the weekly chart looks solid, we should at least be prepared.
Finally, while XRT sits right on the SPY leadership bar, should XRT begin to outperform, the momentum could shift.
The bigger point goes back to the beginning:
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