Is It Time To Get Back Into Xpeng Stock?
MarketBeat.com | Apr 05, 2022 05:33AM ET
Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) stock has sold off with the benchmark indices further accelerated by fears of delisting on U.S. exchanges. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spiked higher oil prices which naturally tends to set more focus on alternative, sustainable, and clean energy options.
EVs attain the most focus as higher gas prices paved the way for more EV adoption. The Company commenced its launch of its P5 family SUV EV in Q4 2021 and will be launching its flagship G9 in Q3 2022. Despite the dramatic sell-off in shares, Xpeng is still seeing triple-digit vehicle deliveries driving triple double-digit revenue growth. Prudent investors waiting for exposure in the EV market can watch for opportunistic pullbacks in shares of Xpeng.
h2 Fiscal Q4 2021 Earnings Release /h2On Mar. 28, 2022, Xpeng released its fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results for the quarter ending December 2021. The company reported an earnings-per-share (EPS) loss of (-$0.22) excluding non-recurring items versus consensus analyst estimates for a loss of (-$0.32), a $0.10 beat. Revenues rose 200% year-over-year (YoY) to $1.34 billion, beating analyst estimates by $134.46 million. Quarterly vehicle deliveries rose 222% to 41,751.
Deliveries of P7 smart sports sedan grew 150% YoY in Q4 to 21,342. Total P5 smart family sedans reached 5,030 deliveries in December 2021 with over 50% supporting XPILOT 3.0 or XPILOT 3.5. Quarterly gross margins hit 12%, up 4.6% YoY. Full year deliveries rose 263% to 98,155 vehicles. Full year gross margins reached 12.5%, up 7.9% YoY. Physical stores grew to 357 stores in 129 cities. Xpeng branded super charging stations grew to 772 locations in 308 cities.
h2 Conference Call Takeaways /h2Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng set the tone,
“Heading into 2022, we are experiencing even higher demand for our products, which continues to outpace our production. To expedite delivery of large volume of order backlog carried over from 2021 and our newly acquired orders earlier this year, we completed technology upgrades of our Zhaoqing plant during scheduled downtime over the Chinese New Year Holiday.
By adjusting our sales and delivery schedules, new orders that came in late February and the first half of March picked up quickly and have returned to same robust level as the peak season in last December. Starting from Mar. 21, we raised the prices across our product lineup by RMB10,000 to RMB20,000, each in order to pass through the rise in cost of batteries and raw materials.”
He explained that EVs have considerable cost advantages over internal combustion engines in times of rising oil prices. This plays right into the Company’s wheelhouse as it markets its mid-to-high end smart EVs to consumers who attach more priority to EV quality and technologies. Xpeng sales will lead the industry in 2022.
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Deliveries experienced some disruption due to a technology upgrade at its Zhaoqing plant, which ushers in a new level of large orders in March. The Company delivered 60,000 P7 smart EVs making it a blockbuster model setting itself as the new benchmark in the Chinese industry. Xpeng expects to exceed 10,000 P7 deliveries per month. Mass deliveries of its P5 families sedan commenced in Q4 2021.
The Company plans to launch its flagship SUV model the G9 in Q3 2022,
“The G9 represents the most advanced technology Xpeng has ever developed building on years of in-house developed software and core hardware. Consequently, the performance of our G9 is head and shoulders above popular SUV models in the same category. I firmly believe that G9 will become a blockbuster model in the medium- to large-sized smart electric SUV market.”
He guided Q1 2022 Smart EV deliveries in the range of 33,500 to 34,000 vehicles.
h2 March 2022 Deliveries /h2On Jan. 4, 2021, Xpeng announced a monthly delivery record of 5,700 smart EVs in December 2020 consisting of a record 3,691 P7 sports sedan and 2,009 G3 smart compact SUVs. December deliveries present a 326% YoY growth and 35% sequential quarterly growth.
The Company delivered a total of 12,964 smart EVs in Q4, representing a 303% YoY and 51% sequential growth and surpassing its own Q4 estimates of 10,000 vehicle deliveries. Total full-year deliveries were 27,041 units, representing a 112% improvement over 2019.
Using Fibonacci (fib) level . The weekly 5-period moving average (MA) is stalling at $27.49 followed by a falling 15-period MA at $36.87 and 50-period MA at $38.81.
The weekly stochastic is attempting to cross back up through the 20-band. The daily lower Bollinger Bands (BBs) at the $17.11 fib. The weekly market structure low (MSL) buy trigger forms above $30.13. The daily rifle chart has a pup breakout as the 5-period MA starts to rise again at $28.11 with 15-period MA rising at $26.97. The daily stochastic is forming a mini pup at the 80-band. The 50-period MA sits at $32.49 and upper BBs at $33.59 with the 200-period MA at $40.22.
Prudent investors can look for opportunistic pullback levels at the $26.19 fib, $25.47 fib, $22.75 fib, $21.79 fib, $19.61 fib, and $17.89 fib level. Upside trajectories range from the $36.50 fib level up towards the $48.06 fib level.
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