Chuck Carnevale | Aug 07, 2012 01:00AM ET
This is the third in my series on investing in utility stocks based on the sector’s current valuation levels. The series was initially inspired by concerns that utility stocks may be overvalued because they had recently performed very well. When the series first started with ITC Holdings Corp: Only Investor-Owned Transmission Utility
ITC Holdings Corp. (NYSE: ITC) is the nation's largest independent electric transmission company. Based in Novi, Michigan, ITC invests in the electric transmission grid to improve reliability, expand access to markets, lower the overall cost of delivered energy and allow new generating resources to interconnect to its transmission systems. ITC's regulated operating subsidiaries include ITCTransmission, Michigan Electric Transmission Company, ITC Midwest and ITC Great Plains.
Through these subsidiaries, ITC owns and operates high-voltage transmission facilities in Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma, serving a combined peak load exceeding 26,000 megawatts along 15,000 circuit miles of transmission line. Through ITC Grid Development and its subsidiaries, the company also focuses on expansion in areas where significant transmission system improvements are needed.
Electric transmission is getting more focus and attention as a concept of an electronic grid analogous to the Internet. Currently there is only one investor-owned utility that is solely invested in transmission; ITC Holdings.
The company was formed in 2002 when it acquired the transmission assets of DTE Energy. The company continues to buy the transmission assets from other utilities and is also building its own projects. ITC went public in July of 2005.
I look at this company separately because not only is it unique within the electric utility industry, but the investment dynamics underpinning this company are unique as well. However, notice that the 60.8% earnings growth rate is skewed due to anomalous earnings growth from 2004 to 2005.
This is a classic example of how statistics can be misleading. Moreover, we further see an example of where the normal PE ratio is more meaningful than the orange earnings justified valuation line, again, due to the skewed growth rate.
MGE Energy Inc. appears to be a classic example of what you would expect a regulated utility to look like. The company’s average earnings growth rate has been slightly higher than 4% per annum. However, a closer examination of the company’s Chg/Yr illustrates more inconsistencies than the picture implies. But most importantly, MGE Energy Inc. is clearly overvalued relative to historical norms.
Vectren Corp provides yet another example of a low growth utility stock. The reader should notice that stock price has been relatively flat (see annual highs and lows highlighted in yellow) and has followed earnings since 1998. Clearly, and as we will soon see, investing in Vectren Corp is all about the dividend, as capital appreciation is extremely low.
Moreover, the company is clearly fully valued as it currently sits at its historically normal PE ratio. Consequently, an argument could be made that the company is too expensive to invest in it at this time, even though it is not excessively overvalued.
Our corporate headquarters are located in Madison, Wisconsin. General offices are located in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, Iowa; utility operation facilities are located in communities throughout our utility service territory in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Alliant Energy shows an almost perfect example of the earnings and price relationship. Although the company’s earnings have been moderately cyclical, the company’s stock price tracks the earnings very closely. But more importantly, we see that the company’s fair value calculated PE ratio of 15 almost perfectly correlates with its historical normal PE of 14.9. Therefore, a rather straightforward argument that the company is overvalued at its current PE ratio is vividly portrayed.
Therefore, we suggest that prospective investors proceed with caution and carefully examine each company that they may be contemplating. In general, utility stocks are not high risk, and are known for high yields. However, they are not known for high growth of either capital or dividends. Once again, we strongly suggest caveat emptor.
Disclosure: No positions at the time of writing.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.