iFOREX Daily Analysis : September 30, 2015
iFOREX | Sep 30, 2015 04:51AM ET
The dollar moved higher against the other major currencies on Tuesday, amid growing concerns over China's economy and despite uncertainty over a potential U.S. rate hike this year as investors eyed upcoming U.S. consumer sentiment data.
The Conference Board reported said its index of consumer confidence rose to an eight year high of 103.0 this month, from a reading of 101.3 in August, whose figure was revised from a previously reported 101.5. Analysts expected the index to fall to 96.1 in September.
Now investors await today release of September inflation data in the euro zone and non-farm payrolls data on Friday, for further indications on the strength of the global economy.
EUR/USD
The euro remained relatively flat on Tuesday, as investors showed hesitancy to make any major moves ahead of Wednesday's monthly report on inflation throughout the euro zone.
The single currency came under pressure after data showed that Germany's annual rate of inflation slowed to zero in September, worse than forecasts of 0.1%.
The German consumer price index fell 0.2% from a month earlier, compared to expectations for a decline of 0.1%.
Currency traders today await the release of critical inflation data from the euro zone for further indications on the strength of the global economy. Analysts expect to see a 0.1% gain for the month, following a 0.1% increase in August.
Pivot:1.119
Support:1.1191.11451.1115
Resistance:1.12951.1331.1365
Scenario 1:Long positions above 1.119 with targets @ 1.1295 & 1.133 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 1.119 look for further downside with 1.1145 & 1.1115 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold
Gold futures were relatively flat on Tuesday amid a steady dollar, as the timing of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and continuing fears of a recession in China remained in focus.
Gold was mostly steady also in Asia Wednesday, ahead of a holiday starting in China tomorrow expected to trim trading activity.
Today’s focus will be on the U.S. monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report, as well as on manufacturing activity data in the Chicago region. While later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen’ speech in St. Louis will be closely watched.
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Pivot:1135
Support:112111161110
Resistance:11351140.51148
Scenario 1:Short positions below 1135 with targets @ 1121 & 1116 in extension.
Scenario 2:Above 1135 look for further upside with 1140.5 & 1148 as targets.
Comment:As long as 1135 is resistance, likely decline to 1121.
WTI Oil
WTI fell sharply in early Asian trade on Wednesday, after U.S. inventories showed a weekly buildup that far exceeded analyst expectations.
The American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.6 million barrels to 457.8 million barrels in the week to September 25. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an increase of only 102,000 barrels.
U.S. crude is heading for a 9% decline this month, as the slump in commodities continues, amid deepening concerns over China's slowdown in economic growth.
Investors’ focus today will be on the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration official weekly inventory data.
According to some analysts, today's session may be more volatile due to the close of September and third-quarter trading.
Pivot:44.35
Support:44.3543.743.2
Resistance:45.7546.447.1
Scenario 1:Long positions above 44.35 with targets @ 45.75 & 46.4 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 44.35 look for further downside with 43.7 & 43.2 as targets.
Comment:A support base at 44.35 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
S&P 500
U.S. stocks ended higher after a volatile session on Tuesday, as concerns about the health of the global economy kept investors cautious after more than a month of turbulence.
The S&P 500 recovered after falling earlier to within 0.26% of lows it touched in August, when fears of a slowdown in China shocked global markets.
Seven of the ten S&P sectors rose, with the healthcare index up 0.9%, ending a seven-day losing streak, thanks in part to gains in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD).
Although the market's recent rout has forced many strategists to slash their year-end expectations, a new Reuters poll shows the S&P 500 ending 2015 roughly 11% above current levels.
Investors are awaiting data scheduled to be released this week, culminating in nonfarm payrolls numbers on Friday.
Pivot: 2044
Support: 1867 1820 1798
Resistance: 2044 2135 2180
Scenario 1: Short positions below 2044 with targets @ 1867 & 1820 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 2044 look for further upside with 2135 & 2180 as targets.
Comment: The RSI has just struck against its neutrality area at 50% and is reversing down. The rising wedge pattern calls for 1867.
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