iFOREX Daily Analysis : October 05, 2015
iFOREX | Oct 05, 2015 05:07AM ET
The dollar fell sharply against other major currencies on Friday after a much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for September which lowered expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 142,000 jobs last month, well below expectations of the 203,000 expected by economists. Average hourly earnings were flat on a monthly basis and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, in line with forecasts. The report underlined fears that a slowdown in global economic growth has spread to the U.S. economy, something which makes gold more attractive as a safe haven investment and pushes back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to early 2016. For Monday, markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday, the U.K. is to release data on service sector activity, the Eurogroup finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels and in the U.S. front, the ISM is to release data on service sector activity.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose on Friday extending gains, as a much weaker than anticipated U.S. jobs report for September strengthened expectations for a delayed rate hike by the Federal Reserve and dampened optimism over the country's economy. The currency pair traded between 1.1150 and 1.1317 reaching its highest level against the dollar since September 21. On Friday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm payrolls for the month of September increased by 142,000, significantly below consensus estimates from analysts of a 203,000 gain. For Monday, the Euro group finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels and in the U.S. front, the ISM is to release data on service sector activity.
Pivot:1.128
Support:1.11951.11451.1115
Resistance:1.1281.13351.1385
Scenario 1:Short positions below 1.128 with targets @ 1.1195 & 1.1145 in extension.
Scenario 2:Above 1.128 look for further upside with 1.1335 & 1.1385 as targets.
Comment:The RSI lacks upward momentum.
Gold
Gold prices shot up on Friday, posting a rise of more than $30 per ounce after the Non-Farm Payrolls release as U.S. interest rates are expected to remain low for a longer period of time, while uncertainty over the health of the U.S. economy makes safe haven assets such as precious metals more attractive for investors. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, when the central bank decided to delay hiking rates. Central bank meetings in Japan, Australia and the U.K. will also be closely watched. For today, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.
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Pivot:1120
Support:112011121105
Resistance:114411481157Scenario 1:Long positions above 1120 with targets @ 1144 & 1148 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 1120 look for further downside with 1112 & 1105 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is mixed to bullish.
WTI Oil
Crude oil futures rallied to one-week highs on Friday after data showing that the number of working U.S. oil rigs fell to a five-year low last week, alleviating concerns about oversupply. Company Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said the number of working rigs fell by 26 to 614 for the week ending on Sept. 25, the lowest total since August 2010. Nearly a year ago at this time, the U.S. oil rig count peaked at 1,609.
The data added to the view that oil production in the U.S. is slowing. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, where the central bank will comment on its September decision to delay hiking rates.
Pivot:45.2
Support:45.244.6544
Resistance:46.3346.947.3
Scenario 1:Long positions above 45.2 with targets @ 46.33 & 46.9 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 45.2 look for further downside with 44.65 & 44 as targets.Comment:The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Volkswagen (XETRA:VOWG)
Volkswagen’s supervisory board will hold an extraordinary meeting on Wednesday at which finance chief Hans Dieter Poetsch is expected to be appointed as new head of the 20-member controlling panel, two sources said on Sunday. Europe's biggest car maker faces the worst business crisis in its 78-year history after it admitted cheating diesel emissions tests in the United States, with 11 million vehicles affected worldwide. The board meeting on Wednesday will discuss the latest findings of VW's internal investigation which has already led to more than 10 suspensions of senior managers, a source close to the board said.
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